Bitcoin (BTC) hit a three-week low of $8,713 on Bitfinex earlier today and looks set to extend losses further, price chart analysis indicates.
As of writing, BTC is changing hands around $8,800 – below the 100-day moving average (MA) of $8,849 and down 2.42 percent from the previous day's close (as per UTC) of $9,018.
The 10 percent decline from the recent high of $9,990 has weakened the bulls and has boosted the odds of a deeper drop to the 50-day moving average lined up at $8,282.
The above chart (prices as per Bitfinex) shows BTC closed (as per UTC) yesterday below $9,149 (23.6 percent Fibonacci retracement), pushing indicators into bearish territory.
For instance, the relative strength index (RSI) has dipped below 50.00, confirming a short-term bullish-to-bearish trend change and opening the doors for a further drop in prices.
The 5-day MA and the 10-day MA are both trending south, having witnessed a bearish crossover earlier this week.
On the 4-hour chart, BTC has breached the trendline support in a convincing manner, and the 50-candle and 100-candle MAs have topped out (shed bullish bias).
The cryptocurrency looks set to test the gradually ascending (mildly bullish) 200-candle MA located just above the $8,628 (38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement, seen in the daily chart). However, the moving average support may hold ground for a few hours as the relative strength index (RSI) shows oversold conditions.
The 50-hour MA, 100-hour MA, and 200-hour MA are trending south and positioned one below the other in favor of the bears. Yet, the RSI on the 60-minute chart also shows oversold conditions. So, a minor corrective rally cannot be ruled out.
- Bitcoin will likely break below $8,628 (38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement), signaling the end of the rally from the April 1 low of $6,425 and may fall to $8,282 (50-day MA) at the weekend.
- BTC could revisit $9,000 as indicated by the oversold conditions 0n the 4- and 1-hour charts. That said, upticks will likely be short-lived as indicated by generally bearish setup.
- Bearish invalidation scenario: A rebound from the mildly bullish 200-candle MA located at $8,628 in 4-hour chart and a close above 10-day MA of $9,390 would abort the bearish view.
The leader in news and information on cryptocurrency, digital assets and the future of money, CoinDesk is a media outlet that strives for the highest journalistic standards and abides by a strict set of editorial policies. CoinDesk is an independent operating subsidiary of Digital Currency Group, which invests in cryptocurrencies and blockchain startups.