Prediction Markets

Prediction markets generate more accurate forecasts than other methods. (Bettmann/Getty Images)
BitMEX's Prediction Market Is Now Live
Current prediction market contracts revolve around FTX bankruptcy claim recoveries, the future of bitcoin ETFs, and Sam Bankman-Fried’s jail sentence.
Prediction markets generate more accurate forecasts than other methods. (Bettmann/Getty Images)

(Nikhilesh De/CoinDesk)
CFTC Kicks Off Review of Kalshi's Congressional Control Prediction Markets
Kalshi wants to let users bet on which political party will control Congress after an election.
(Nikhilesh De/CoinDesk)

Kalshi will have a prediction contract weighed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. (Jesse Hamilton/CoinDesk)
CFTC to Review Prediction Market Kalshi’s Contracts to Bet on Control of Congress
The U.S. derivatives regulator has scheduled a June 26 meeting to discuss starting another review to evaluate whether to approve Kalshi’s event contracts.
Kalshi will have a prediction contract weighed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. (Jesse Hamilton/CoinDesk)

Commodity Futures Trading Commission CFTC logo (Mark Van Scyoc/Shutterstock)
CFTC Staff Recommends Rejecting Kalshi's US Election Contracts: Bloomberg
Commissioners would still need to vote on the advice.
Commodity Futures Trading Commission CFTC logo (Mark Van Scyoc/Shutterstock)

Kalshi countdown to election markets (kalshi.com)
Prediction Market Kalshi Signals It Sees CFTC's Blessing for Midterm Election Bets
A countdown clock on its website ends today, indicating the service is optimistic regulators will let it offer contracts for the Nov. 8 election.
Kalshi countdown to election markets (kalshi.com)

U.S. Capitol building, Washington, D.C. (Jesse Hamilton/CoinDesk)
Crypto Predictions Site Polymarket Foresees Republicans Winning Both Senate and House
The site is giving an overall 64% chance to Republicans for taking control of Congress.
U.S. Capitol building, Washington, D.C. (Jesse Hamilton/CoinDesk)

Russian President Vladimir Putin (DimitroSevastopol/Pixabay)
Crypto Predictions Site Polymarket Taking Bets on Whether Russia Will Use a Nuclear Weapon by 2023
Traders on Polymarket, which is not available to U.S. users, are putting a 6% probability of Russia doing so.
Russian President Vladimir Putin (DimitroSevastopol/Pixabay)

PredictIt allows traders to wager on the outcome of political events. (Jesse Hamilton/CoinDesk)
Election Betting Site PredictIt Sues to Block CFTC-Ordered Shutdown
The CFTC’s August action calls for the site to be closed for U.S. users by February 15.
PredictIt allows traders to wager on the outcome of political events. (Jesse Hamilton/CoinDesk)

PredictIt, which allows traders to wager on the outcome of political events, has been ordered by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to shut down U.S. activity in six months. (Jesse Hamilton/CoinDesk)
Popular Election-Betting Site PredictIt Throttled by US Regulator
The site where people can wager on the outcome of political battles has until February to close its U.S. operations, said the CFTC.
PredictIt, which allows traders to wager on the outcome of political events, has been ordered by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to shut down U.S. activity in six months. (Jesse Hamilton/CoinDesk)

Three men in a betting shop (Image Source/Getty Images, Modified by CoinDesk)
Is Crypto Sports Betting Ready for the Big Leagues?
Sports bettors eagerly await a blockchain-powered sports betting service with audited smart contracts, user-friendly policies, low commissions and fees – and meaningful volume...
Three men in a betting shop (Image Source/Getty Images, Modified by CoinDesk)