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Prediction Markets

President Trump Delivers Remarks in New Orleans; Jan 14, 2019
Markets
Analysis
Nearly $100M Wagered on U.S. Presidential Election on Polymarket
Bettors on the crypto-based prediction market platform see a clear path to victory for Trump, and are bullish on Ethereum's ETH hitting an all-time high in 2024 – just not bef...
President Trump Delivers Remarks in New Orleans; Jan 14, 2019
By Sam ReynoldsShaurya Malwa
Mar 18, 2024 at 1:49 p.m. UTC
Mar 18, 2024
AnalysisPrediction MarketsPolymarketDonald TrumpElection 2024US Elections
Group portrait centered on Isadora Duncan, seated with her hands in her lap holding a crystal ball and gazing downwards. She is surrounded by six other female dancers who are posing in standing, kneeling, or sitting positions, and all gazing at her. In the background are four curtained windows and potted plants.
Finance
Exclusive
Prediction Market Kalshi to Take Bets on Crypto (Settled in Dollars)
The CFTC-regulated platform will let traders bet on how high ETH will go this year and other price outcomes amid renewed interest in both crypto and prediction markets.
Group portrait centered on Isadora Duncan, seated with her hands in her lap holding a crystal ball and gazing downwards. She is surrounded by six other female dancers who are posing in standing, kneeling, or sitting positions, and all gazing at her. In the background are four curtained windows and potted plants.
By Marc Hochstein
Mar 18, 2024 at 2:41 a.m. UTC
Mar 18, 2024
Exclusive Prediction MarketsKalshi
U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Rostin Behnam says his agency is working on a new proposal for prediction markets regulation. (Jesse Hamilton/CoinDesk)
Policy
Regulations
U.S. CFTC's Behnam Says Agency Writing New Policy on Prediction Markets
Companies such as PredictIt and Kalshi would get "regulatory clarity" under rule in coming months, according to the chairman of the derivatives regulator.
U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Rostin Behnam says his agency is working on a new proposal for prediction markets regulation. (Jesse Hamilton/CoinDesk)
By Jesse Hamilton
Mar 12, 2024 at 2:26 p.m. UTC
Mar 12, 2024
RegulationsKalshiPrediction MarketsPredictItPolymarketCommodity Futures Trading Commission
WASHINGTON, DC - DECEMBER 05: (L-R) Dr. Claudine Gay, President of Harvard University, Liz Magill, President of University of Pennsylvania, Dr. Pamela Nadell, Professor of History and Jewish Studies at American University, and Dr. Sally Kornbluth, President of Massachusetts Institute of Technology, testify before the House Education and Workforce Committee at the Rayburn House Office Building on December 05, 2023 in Washington, DC. The Committee held a hearing to investigate antisemitism on college campuses. (Photo by Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)
Markets
Polymarket
He Exposed Harvard President's Plagiarism, Then Lost Money Betting on the Story
Are prediction markets the future of investigative journalism? Maybe, says Chris Brunet, whose reporting led to Claudine Gay's resignation – though he's yet to profit from his...
WASHINGTON, DC - DECEMBER 05: (L-R) Dr. Claudine Gay, President of Harvard University, Liz Magill, President of University of Pennsylvania, Dr. Pamela Nadell, Professor of History and Jewish Studies at American University, and Dr. Sally Kornbluth, President of Massachusetts Institute of Technology, testify before the House Education and Workforce Committee at the Rayburn House Office Building on December 05, 2023 in Washington, DC. The Committee held a hearing to investigate antisemitism on college campuses. (Photo by Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)
By Sam Reynolds
Jan 20, 2024 at 5:00 p.m. UTC
Jan 20, 2024
PolymarketPrediction MarketsHarvardHarvard University
Bitcoin ETF frenzy drives volume growth on prediction markets. (Obsahovka/Pixabay)
Markets
Polymarket
Bitcoin ETF Frenzy Brings Windfall Volume to Decentralized Predictions Platform Polymarket
Polymarket saw betting contracts worth more than $5.7 million change hands on Wednesday.
Bitcoin ETF frenzy drives volume growth on prediction markets. (Obsahovka/Pixabay)
By Omkar Godbole
Jan 11, 2024 at 9:45 a.m. UTC
Jan 11, 2024
PolymarketBitcoinMarketsBetting PlatformsPrediction MarketsBitcoin ETF
U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Rostin Behnam says his agency still doesn't have the tools to prevent another FTX. (Jesse Hamilton/CoinDesk)
Policy
Regulations
CFTC Chief: Nothing Changed After FTX Meltdown to Empower Agency to Prevent Repeat
U.S. CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam says his agency is still awaiting new authorities from Congress to get supervision power over the crypto markets.
U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Rostin Behnam says his agency still doesn't have the tools to prevent another FTX. (Jesse Hamilton/CoinDesk)
By Jesse Hamilton
Nov 15, 2023 at 4:11 p.m. UTC
Nov 15, 2023
RegulationsCommodity Futures Trading CommissionRostin BehmanSecurities and Exchange CommissionBitcoinETHKalshiPrediction MarketsLegislationFTX
Kalshi is suing the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. (Jesse Hamilton/CoinDesk)
Policy
Regulations
Prediction Market Kalshi Sues U.S. CFTC for Denying Its Contracts for Congressional Elections
The CFTC denied a valid hedging option when it rebuffed a plan to offer event contracts for traders to bet on political outcomes, the company said.
Kalshi is suing the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. (Jesse Hamilton/CoinDesk)
By Jesse Hamilton
Nov 1, 2023 at 10:42 p.m. UTC
Nov 1, 2023
RegulationsCongressPrediction MarketsKalshiCommodity Futures Trading Commissionlitigation
tarot cards
Consensus Magazine
Opinion
Americans (Seemingly) Aren't Allowed to Put This Economic Theory to the Test
The CFTC keeps putting fences around prediction markets, which some say are better way to aggregate information.
tarot cards
By Daniel Kuhn
Sep 22, 2023 at 7:19 p.m. UTC
Sep 22, 2023
OpinionThe NodeNewslettersPrediction MarketsKalshi
CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam speaks at DC Fintech Week (Nikhilesh De/CoinDesk)
Policy
Regulations
CFTC Denies Kalshi’s Plan to Let Users Bet on Control of U.S. Congress
U.S. federal regulators said the plans weren't in the "public interest," after a court squabble involving rival service PredictIt
CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam speaks at DC Fintech Week (Nikhilesh De/CoinDesk)
By Jack Schickler
Sep 22, 2023 at 1:11 p.m. UTC
Sep 22, 2023
RegulationsPrediction MarketsCFTCUnited States
Prediction markets generate more accurate forecasts than other methods. (Bettmann/Getty Images)
Markets
Bitmex
BitMEX's Prediction Market Is Now Live
Current prediction market contracts revolve around FTX bankruptcy claim recoveries, the future of bitcoin ETFs, and Sam Bankman-Fried’s jail sentence.
Prediction markets generate more accurate forecasts than other methods. (Bettmann/Getty Images)
By Sam Reynolds
Sep 13, 2023 at 5:42 a.m. UTC
Sep 13, 2023
BitMEXPrediction MarketsPolymarket