Next Up: BTC ETFs Go Global

This spot, Bitcoin ETF update is presented by Grayscale, the world's largest crypto asset manager spot. Bitcoin ETF S are continuing to see record inflows in the United States, but they've caused a regulatory ripple effect around the world. Joining first mover now to chat about that is crypto quant head of research Julio Moreno Julio. Welcome to first mover. Thank you. Thank you for having me. All right, let's talk about these inflows, breaking records. It feels like every single time uh I I see in your report on the inflows. What are you making of all of the interest and excitement over here in the United States? The ETF launch in the USA um has been a, you know, a total success. Um It was really, you know, above anyone's expectations so far 2024 in, in terms of inflows, in terms of capital that has flowed into these uh products. And we have now uh record uh holdings of Bitcoin in DC TFS uh over 800,000 including G BT C and that's uh 4% of the total supply of Bitcoin. So it's quite impressive, Julio, it was a regulatory, I wanna say, nightmare but regulatory battle leading up to this, a 10 year long battle um that really came to this approval because of a lawsuit that was brought on by gray scale. Um Talk to me about what we're seeing from the rest of the world now, like I said in my introduction, there is a regulatory ripple effect happening. We got some news out of the, the UK, Thailand and Hong Kong. How's the rest of the world reacting to this from a regulatory perspective, once the CT A are approved, you know, and in the US uh which is uh by far the biggest market, um other other markets, other countries may look at this uh launching this type of products uh because of um uh the US legitimizing, you know, um Bitcoin uh through the CTF. So of course, there's gonna be um you know, a push in other countries in other industries to have their own product, right? Because they don't want to be left behind, right? Uh Because if you don't launch this type of products in, in, in other countries and other financial centers, then probably that capital is gonna come to the US, right? So it's uh it's also uh you know, a competition, it's a raise to for the for the flow of capital. I mentioned a few different regions just a few minutes ago that are now looking at ETF products for either retail or institutional investors. Um Hong Kong is one of them. Why are you watching Hong Kong? What's so special about Hong Kong? First of all, because Asia is a really big market for in, in general, for crypto. Um Asia um countries like uh South Korea and Japan, they are really uh big markets in terms of trading volume for crypto. So that's, that's one thing. Um there's a lot of uh investment potential from Asia and then Hong Kong um recently, relatively recently they passed uh uh let's say crypto friendly uh regulations. Um They, they um launch uh a license for, for exchanges to come to Hong Kong to operate, you know, on a regulated way. So I think, you know, in terms of regulation, everything's in place in Hong Kong. And so now they, they are seeing the success in the US. So they want to replicate that and, and of course Hong Kong being, you know, a financial center, um a major financial center. Uh so it's, it's really, really important, let's talk about the spot E ETF. Now we can't talk about this topic when ETF without talking about the spot E ETF. And I'm just curious what your thoughts are here because more and more as the days go on, a lot of people who come on the show, they're actually a little bit skeptical if we'll see a spot E ETF here in the United States in May with all of this interest from other countries. Do you think that it's possible we'll see a spot to eat. ETF, approved somewhere else before it's approved here in the United States. Well, I've been reading, you know, um especially um in Hong Kong, they're really working um to launch this spot. Um E ETF. So and I think that because the US, you know, they, they got, they got their first mover advantage with Bitcoin rights. Um maybe some other places will like to have that. But for Ethereum, right? And so I think it may make sense for other places um like Hong Kong, which has already, you know, clear regula regulations uh to, to launch another, you know, the second largest uh crypto, right? Uh as a spot ETF that will give them like the first move advantage. So I think that uh uh in other, in other, I think in other countries, it's gonna be probably uh could be like first to the US um for, for the spot ETF, do you think that will actually matter though? And the reason I ask is because the US wasn't actually the first mover to the spot, Bitcoin ETF. There are other regions who had one Canada as an example and there wasn't that this much excitement, there wasn't this much flow going into the Canadian spot, Bitcoin ETF. So do you think it actually matters if there's a Spot Ether ETF that pops up somewhere uh around the world before the US gets approval or is the US, the market that really actually uh pushes the rest of the globe to make a move. Of course, the US is, uh you know, by far the largest market. So that's, uh, you know, uh that's uh uh one thing that they have uh to their favor, right? But also the others, uh the previous Bitcoin spot ETS were launched and, and we were not really in the, in the bull market, right? So that has an effect. Uh We, we, we went to this Bear market uh in 2022 so that, you know, people or institutions weren't really, you know, want to have exposure right to Bitcoin during the bear market. So now that we are really in, in a, in a bull market, there's a lot of more interest, right? So if you launch a Spot Ethereum ETF in this moment because we are in a, in a, in a bull market that uh people want to have exposure or institutions really want to have exposure uh and this part of the cycle, right? So that's, that's the difference I would say between the Bitcon party TF that were launched um previously in other regions. Um uh in the US, they were launched as we were really in a, in a bull market. So that's that will be uh the difference. Do you think that central banks will start buying Bitcoin with all of this excitement around the ETF governments and regulators looking at Bitcoin a little bit differently? Do you think that's in our future? I would say that um if they ever do that, they will be the last to do it. Um I, I don't think that they want to um legitimize Bitcoin that much, uh you know, in that way. Um And it's a progression, of course, you know, individuals um adopted Bitcoin first, then they came some uh funds and then it became um companies, right, like microstrategy. And then we have now, now these large uh wealth managers. Um so it's a progression uh in that progression, I guess if that ever happens, the central banks will be uh I guess the, the last ones um to, to do that you brought up microstrategy micro strategy was in the news yesterday wanting to buy even more Bitcoin as Bitcoin recently reached all time highs. I, I know I just asked you if you think we'll see central banks start buying Bitcoin. But do you think more companies are watching Michael Saylor? They're watching Micro Strategy and they're thinking, hm, there's something here to what he's doing and might start diversifying their, their business to follow suit. Yeah, definitely. I think that, you know, the broader adoption of Bitcoin by corporations is, is one of the things that could uh drive this cycle. Um Now we have like this, you know, successful example of what microstrategy uh has done, right? And also I was uh um reading uh from mid wise um that you know, who, who's buying or who's gonna buy this ETF. And they were seeing like they were being asked by corporations also, you know, um, you know, to have exposure via DC TF. So I think that that's, you know, happening, uh A as we speak, they are considering definitely considering having exposure to Bitcoin, uh, whether it's, you know, having the, the actual, uh, Bitcoin or, or through the ctfs is another possibility. But yeah, it's definitely something that I think is gonna, it's gonna continue um the adoption of Bitcoin as a, as a, you know, balance sheet assets for, for corporations. All right, Julio, I'm gonna ask you to look into your crystal ball for me if you look at the rest of 2024. Uh What do you think is gonna happen next with, I'm gonna make it a little bit easier for you with Bitcoin or with ETF S Well, for Bitcoin, I mean, we are heading to the, to the album, right? Uh And in past cycles, um the housing has always this, this effect of um accelerating the price run. So, I mean, uh f from that perspective, we could expect like, um Bitcoin continue to, to, to gain um in terms of pricing. And so, and of, of course, if, if demand from the ctfs continues to grow, um as it has been, uh that's really, really driving, you know, the, the demand for Bitcoin, of course, it will be reflected on price. So, yeah, I think it's, you know, in general, uh positive, positive year for, for Bitcoin Julio. Thank you so much for joining first mover today and sharing your perspectives. Thank you. Thank you for, for inviting me.This spot, Bitcoin ETF update is presented by Grayscale, the world's largest crypto asset manager spot. Bitcoin ETF S are continuing to see record inflows in the United States, but they've caused a regulatory ripple effect around the world. Joining first mover now to chat about that is crypto quant head of research Julio Moreno Julio. Welcome to first mover. Thank you. Thank you for having me. All right, let's talk about these inflows, breaking records. It feels like every single time uh I I see in your report on the inflows. What are you making of all of the interest and excitement over here in the United States? The ETF launch in the USA um has been a, you know, a total success. Um It was really, you know, above anyone's expectations so far 2024 in, in terms of inflows, in terms of capital that has flowed into these uh products. And we have now uh record uh holdings of Bitcoin in DC TFS uh over 800,000 including G BT C and that's uh 4% of the total supply of Bitcoin. So it's quite impressive, Julio, it was a regulatory, I wanna say, nightmare but regulatory battle leading up to this, a 10 year long battle um that really came to this approval because of a lawsuit that was brought on by gray scale. Um Talk to me about what we're seeing from the rest of the world now, like I said in my introduction, there is a regulatory ripple effect happening. We got some news out of the, the UK, Thailand and Hong Kong. How's the rest of the world reacting to this from a regulatory perspective, once the CT A are approved, you know, and in the US uh which is uh by far the biggest market, um other other markets, other countries may look at this uh launching this type of products uh because of um uh the US legitimizing, you know, um Bitcoin uh through the CTF. So of course, there's gonna be um you know, a push in other countries in other industries to have their own product, right? Because they don't want to be left behind, right? Uh Because if you don't launch this type of products in, in, in other countries and other financial centers, then probably that capital is gonna come to the US, right? So it's uh it's also uh you know, a competition, it's a raise to for the for the flow of capital. I mentioned a few different regions just a few minutes ago that are now looking at ETF products for either retail or institutional investors. Um Hong Kong is one of them. Why are you watching Hong Kong? What's so special about Hong Kong? First of all, because Asia is a really big market for in, in general, for crypto. Um Asia um countries like uh South Korea and Japan, they are really uh big markets in terms of trading volume for crypto. So that's, that's one thing. Um there's a lot of uh investment potential from Asia and then Hong Kong um recently, relatively recently they passed uh uh let's say crypto friendly uh regulations. Um They, they um launch uh a license for, for exchanges to come to Hong Kong to operate, you know, on a regulated way. So I think, you know, in terms of regulation, everything's in place in Hong Kong. And so now they, they are seeing the success in the US. So they want to replicate that and, and of course Hong Kong being, you know, a financial center, um a major financial center. Uh so it's, it's really, really important, let's talk about the spot E ETF. Now we can't talk about this topic when ETF without talking about the spot E ETF. And I'm just curious what your thoughts are here because more and more as the days go on, a lot of people who come on the show, they're actually a little bit skeptical if we'll see a spot E ETF here in the United States in May with all of this interest from other countries. Do you think that it's possible we'll see a spot to eat. ETF, approved somewhere else before it's approved here in the United States. Well, I've been reading, you know, um especially um in Hong Kong, they're really working um to launch this spot. Um E ETF. So and I think that because the US, you know, they, they got, they got their first mover advantage with Bitcoin rights. Um maybe some other places will like to have that. But for Ethereum, right? And so I think it may make sense for other places um like Hong Kong, which has already, you know, clear regula regulations uh to, to launch another, you know, the second largest uh crypto, right? Uh as a spot ETF that will give them like the first move advantage. So I think that uh uh in other, in other, I think in other countries, it's gonna be probably uh could be like first to the US um for, for the spot ETF, do you think that will actually matter though? And the reason I ask is because the US wasn't actually the first mover to the spot, Bitcoin ETF. There are other regions who had one Canada as an example and there wasn't that this much excitement, there wasn't this much flow going into the Canadian spot, Bitcoin ETF. So do you think it actually matters if there's a Spot Ether ETF that pops up somewhere uh around the world before the US gets approval or is the US, the market that really actually uh pushes the rest of the globe to make a move. Of course, the US is, uh you know, by far the largest market. So that's, uh, you know, uh that's uh uh one thing that they have uh to their favor, right? But also the others, uh the previous Bitcoin spot ETS were launched and, and we were not really in the, in the bull market, right? So that has an effect. Uh We, we, we went to this Bear market uh in 2022 so that, you know, people or institutions weren't really, you know, want to have exposure right to Bitcoin during the bear market. So now that we are really in, in a, in a bull market, there's a lot of more interest, right? So if you launch a Spot Ethereum ETF in this moment because we are in a, in a, in a bull market that uh people want to have exposure or institutions really want to have exposure uh and this part of the cycle, right? So that's, that's the difference I would say between the Bitcon party TF that were launched um previously in other regions. Um uh in the US, they were launched as we were really in a, in a bull market. So that's that will be uh the difference. Do you think that central banks will start buying Bitcoin with all of this excitement around the ETF governments and regulators looking at Bitcoin a little bit differently? Do you think that's in our future? I would say that um if they ever do that, they will be the last to do it. Um I, I don't think that they want to um legitimize Bitcoin that much, uh you know, in that way. Um And it's a progression, of course, you know, individuals um adopted Bitcoin first, then they came some uh funds and then it became um companies, right, like microstrategy. And then we have now, now these large uh wealth managers. Um so it's a progression uh in that progression, I guess if that ever happens, the central banks will be uh I guess the, the last ones um to, to do that you brought up microstrategy micro strategy was in the news yesterday wanting to buy even more Bitcoin as Bitcoin recently reached all time highs. I, I know I just asked you if you think we'll see central banks start buying Bitcoin. But do you think more companies are watching Michael Saylor? They're watching Micro Strategy and they're thinking, hm, there's something here to what he's doing and might start diversifying their, their business to follow suit. Yeah, definitely. I think that, you know, the broader adoption of Bitcoin by corporations is, is one of the things that could uh drive this cycle. Um Now we have like this, you know, successful example of what microstrategy uh has done, right? And also I was uh um reading uh from mid wise um that you know, who, who's buying or who's gonna buy this ETF. And they were seeing like they were being asked by corporations also, you know, um, you know, to have exposure via DC TF. So I think that that's, you know, happening, uh A as we speak, they are considering definitely considering having exposure to Bitcoin, uh, whether it's, you know, having the, the actual, uh, Bitcoin or, or through the ctfs is another possibility. But yeah, it's definitely something that I think is gonna, it's gonna continue um the adoption of Bitcoin as a, as a, you know, balance sheet assets for, for corporations. All right, Julio, I'm gonna ask you to look into your crystal ball for me if you look at the rest of 2024. Uh What do you think is gonna happen next with, I'm gonna make it a little bit easier for you with Bitcoin or with ETF S Well, for Bitcoin, I mean, we are heading to the, to the album, right? Uh And in past cycles, um the housing has always this, this effect of um accelerating the price run. So, I mean, uh f from that perspective, we could expect like, um Bitcoin continue to, to, to gain um in terms of pricing. And so, and of, of course, if, if demand from the ctfs continues to grow, um as it has been, uh that's really, really driving, you know, the, the demand for Bitcoin, of course, it will be reflected on price. So, yeah, I think it's, you know, in general, uh positive, positive year for, for Bitcoin Julio. Thank you so much for joining first mover today and sharing your perspectives. Thank you. Thank you for, for inviting me.