Bitcoin Shrugs Off Solid Inflation Report, Holds Steady Over $30K

After a brief bout of volatility, bitcoin brushed off positive inflation data in Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index report for June. The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization was recently trading at about $30,300, down less than a percentage point over the past 24 hours.

U.S. consumer prices rose 0.2% in June, beating expectations for a 0.3% increase. Core inflation, which excludes more volatile food and energy prices also surpassed forecasts, rising 4.8% versus consensus estimates of 5%. The overall inflation rate in the U.S. is now 3% compared to 9.1% in June 2022.

The upbeat inflation news should have logically sent bitcoin higher in the immediate aftermath, but instead the price declined, even as volatility spiked.

BTC’s price ranged from a high of $31,122 to a low of $30,575, although BTC’s hourly candles fluctuated between red and green like a malfunctioning traffic light. BTC and other cryptos’ sluggish performance may reflect the lessening impact of CPI compared to other inflation data on crypto markets compared to other inflation data and of traditional finance (TradFi) indicators that previously weighed on investors.

One data point, two time horizons

Investors’ view of Wednesday’s market is likely colored by their preferred time frame. While bitcoin’s hourly chart displays volatile price moves grappling with today’s CPI news, its daily price chart implies the opposite, with range-bound trading, and declining volatility.

Bitcoin’s daily price wasn’t the only thing that shrugged at today’s data point. Per the CME Fedwatch tool, expectations that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) would raise rates 25 basis points on July 26 are 94.9%, versus 93% a day prior.

Today’s report appeared to change nothing specific to the FOMC’s upcoming policy decision, and BTC prices are reacting as such. Major equity indexes traded higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 all increasing.

Still crypto markets have largely decoupled from TradFi during 2023, with only the most surprising economic reports moving markets significantly.

While we watch CPI, the Fed seems to prefer PCE

While CPI gets a lot of attention, the FOMC’s favored measure of inflation appears to be U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE). In the most recent release of FOMC minutes, PCE is mentioned 10 times compared to three mentions of CPI.

More importantly, the FOMC made projections for the former, rather than the latter, raising expectations for a decline in quarterly core personal consumption expenditures in the second and third quarters of 2023.

All told, while CPI is moving in the right direction, the magnitude of change appears to fall within the expectations that crypto investors previously held. The next PCE reading will be released on July 27, two days after the FOMC’s next rate decision meeting begins.