Bitcoin (BTC) is taking a breather after Thursday’s sharp rally that took prices back above a widely tracked technical line.
- On Thursday, bitcoin jumped almost 5% to levels above $10,750, confirming its biggest single-day gain since July 27, according to data source Coin Metrics.
- With the move, the cryptocurrency found acceptance above the 100-day moving average at $10,448, which was breached to the downside earlier this week.
- So far, however, the sharp recovery from weekly lows near $10,200 has failed to draw stronger buying pressure.
- At press time, bitcoin is trading near $10,680, representing a 1% decline from the high of $10,789 observed during Thursday's U.S. trading hours.
- The market has been a little lacking direction in recent weeks, with prices largely stuck in the $10,000 to $11,000 range since Sept. 4.
- John Ng Pangilinan, managing partner at Singapore-based Signum Capital, sees a bullish revival occurring above $11,000.
- "A stronger rally would materialize if prices rise above $11,000," Pangilinan told CoinDesk. "I would buy on a breakout above the psychological hurdle."
- The odds, however, may be stacked in favor of the bears, as dollar liquidity in international markets is beginning to tighten, as tweeted by macro analyst David Belle.
- As such, the dollar may extend recent gains against other currencies, putting downward pressure on the cryptocurrency.
- "A break below the early September low of $9,800 would open the doors to $8,000," Joel Kruger, a currency strategist at LMAX Digital, told CoinDesk.
- A big move may happen soon, as bitcoin's one-month implied volatility has declined to 44% – the lowest level in nearly two years, according to data source Skew.
- In the past, an implied volatility of 50% or less has paved the way for violent price action.
- Currently, implied volatility closing on the all-time low of 35% seen ahead of the mid-November 2018 crash.