The numbers are all over the place and the narratives are even more complicated, so what’s the real story with inflation?
There is perhaps nothing more important or contentious in macroeconomics right now than the question of inflation.
On the one hand, there is a growing concern that rapidly growing money supply and increasing central bank balance sheets will inevitably lead to inflationary pressures.
On the other, critics of that point of view point to significant countervailing forces such as the 10% unemployment rate and growing savings rate among consumers.
So who is right?
What are the specific narratives trying to say?
What is the evidence and data actually telling us?
And how are real people experiencing inflation today?