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RESEARCH: The Market Impacts of a Bitcoin Halving Explained

“If price performance following the November 2012 and July 2016 halvings are any indicator, bitcoin’s price should increase significantly over the 10 to 12 month period following the [third] halving.”

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“If price performance following the November 2012 and July 2016 halvings are any indicator, bitcoin’s price should increase significantly over the 10 to 12 month period following the [third] halving.”

That’s Ciara Sun, head of global business and markets at cryptocurrency exchange Huobi. Speaking on the third podcast episode of “Bitcoin Halving 2020: Miner Perspectives,” Ciara was joined by Chief Financial Officer at Bitfarm, John Rim. The two shared their insights on the expected market impacts of bitcoin’s third halving event.

Sun noted that many crypto investors are expecting a substantial bitcoin price increase in the months following the 50 percent reduction in bitcoin block subsidy rewards. However, Sun also caveated her statement saying the market dynamics leading up to May’s halving event are “more complicated” this time around due to global events such as the COVID-19 outbreak.

No matter the impact on bitcoin’s market price, Rim affirmed that miner revenue per terahash would likely readjust and normalize to pre-halving levels as a result of mining difficulty adjustments. “The whole network relies on mining for the validation of transactions and for a self-incentivized system like bitcoin, you need miners to be profitable,” Rim said.

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Photo by Zbynek Burival on Unsplash

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