Biden's Odds of Dropping Out Surge to Almost 80% on Polymarket After New York Times Report

It had been only 55% earlier in the day.

AccessTimeIconJul 3, 2024 at 3:21 p.m. UTC
Updated Jul 3, 2024 at 4:56 p.m. UTC

A New York Times report that President Joe Biden is weighing his future in the 2024 race prompted traders on Polymarket to boost the odds the Democrat will drop out nearly 80% on Wednesday.

That's up from 55% earlier. The wild upswing caps a week of mayhem in Polymarket's "Biden drops out of presidential race?" market, which has garnered nearly $10 million in bets. Before last week's debate with Donald Trump, the same question gave 20% odds.

Plenty of Washington talking heads have talked down Biden's ability to prevail in the 2024 election against Trump after a faltering debate performance put a spotlight on his age. But The New York Times is now reporting that Biden thinks he has a short and slimming window to salvage his prospects.

"He knows if he has two more events like that, we’re in a different place," the New York Times quoted an unnamed ally as saying about Biden.

A White House spokesperson said on X that the New York Times story is false.

UPDATE (July 3, 2024, 15:30 UTC): Adds White House spokesperson saying The New York Times story is false.

Edited by Nick Baker.


Please note that our privacy policy, terms of use, cookies, and do not sell my personal information has been updated.

CoinDesk is an award-winning media outlet that covers the cryptocurrency industry. Its journalists abide by a strict set of editorial policies. In November 2023, CoinDesk was acquired by the Bullish group, owner of Bullish, a regulated, digital assets exchange. The Bullish group is majority-owned by; both companies have interests in a variety of blockchain and digital asset businesses and significant holdings of digital assets, including bitcoin. CoinDesk operates as an independent subsidiary with an editorial committee to protect journalistic independence. CoinDesk employees, including journalists, may receive options in the Bullish group as part of their compensation.

Danny Nelson

Danny is CoinDesk's Managing Editor for Data & Tokens. He owns BTC, ETH and SOL.