Crypto Bettors Lay 17% Odds on Donald Trump in Jail Before Election Day

Gamblers have placed almost $900,000 in bets on the “Trump in jail before election day?” market on the predictions application Polymarket.

AccessTimeIconMay 31, 2024 at 11:38 a.m. UTC
  • Crypto punters on Polymarket give Donald Trump a 17% chance of going to jail before the November U.S. presidential election.
  • The market for the bet has seen $900,000 in wagers from crypto users since its creation in January.

Crypto punters are giving Donald Trump a 17% chance of going to jail before the U.S. presidential election in November, odds on predictions application Polymarket show.

Trump was found guilty on Thursday by a New York jury on all 34 counts. He was accused of falsifying business records, becoming the first former president to be convicted in U.S. courts. Trump pleaded not guilty and said he will "keep fighting until the end," according to the BBC.

Data shows that a market for “Trump in jail before election day?” saw increased buying and selling activity on Friday. The market was created in January and has racked up $900,000 in bets from crypto users.


The market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump spends at least 48 consecutive hours in custody in a jail or prison between Jan. 5 and 11:59 p.m. ET on Nov. 5. Otherwise, it resolves to "No.”

As of European morning hours, the odds of “Yes” are selling at 17 cents and “No” are at 85 cents. When it ends, the correct outcome will be worth $1. (The total may not add up to 100 at Polymarket due to market uncertainty and other price factors.)

The chances of Trump actually going to jail before the election remain slim, Reuters reported.

In Polymarket's “Presidential Election Winner 2024” market, the odds of Trump becoming president dropped 2 percentage points to 54% on Thursday. President Joe Biden’s chances grew to 40% from 38%.

Edited by Sheldon Reback.


Please note that our privacy policy, terms of use, cookies, and do not sell my personal information has been updated.

CoinDesk is an award-winning media outlet that covers the cryptocurrency industry. Its journalists abide by a strict set of editorial policies. In November 2023, CoinDesk was acquired by the Bullish group, owner of Bullish, a regulated, digital assets exchange. The Bullish group is majority-owned by; both companies have interests in a variety of blockchain and digital asset businesses and significant holdings of digital assets, including bitcoin. CoinDesk operates as an independent subsidiary with an editorial committee to protect journalistic independence. CoinDesk employees, including journalists, may receive options in the Bullish group as part of their compensation.

Shaurya Malwa

Shaurya is the Deputy Managing Editor for the Data & Tokens team, focusing on decentralized finance, markets, on-chain data, and governance across all major and minor blockchains.