April Seasonality Favors Bitcoin and Stocks

The first month of the second quarter is usually bullish for risk assets.

AccessTimeIconApr 3, 2023 at 6:49 a.m. UTC
Updated Apr 3, 2023 at 3:18 p.m. UTC
10 Years of Decentralizing the Future
May 29-31, 2024 - Austin, TexasThe biggest and most established global hub for everything crypto, blockchain and Web3.Register Now

Bitcoin (BTC) and U.S. stocks have entered one of their strongest seasonal periods of the year.

The top cryptocurrency by market value has chalked up gains in April in six out of the past 10 years, averaging a return of more than 17%, according to data tracked by crypto services provider Matrixport. Over the past 10 years, April has been the best month in the year's first half and the third-best month for the full year for bitcoin.

Wall Street's benchmark equity index, the S&P 500, has averaged a return of 2.6% in April in the past 10 years, gaining eight out of 10 times.

"The recent bull rally in U.S. stocks should have positive spillover effects for crypto as well, especially since we are now entering the month of April, which has been strong for U.S. stocks (S&P 500 +2.6%, Nasdaq +2.9%), [b]itcoin +17%, and [ether] +46%," Markus Thielen, head of research and strategy at Matrixport, said.

"Our big thesis for 2023 that inflation will decline is playing out. All risk assets should rally," Thielen added.

Bitcoin rose 23% in March, taking the year-to-date gain to 67%. The S&P 500 has gained 7% this year. Data released on Friday showed the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge cooled back down in February, boosting hopes that policymakers will be able to dial back their aggressive monetary tightening.

Edited by Parikshit Mishra.

Disclosure

Please note that our privacy policy, terms of use, cookies, and do not sell my personal information has been updated.

CoinDesk is an award-winning media outlet that covers the cryptocurrency industry. Its journalists abide by a strict set of editorial policies. In November 2023, CoinDesk was acquired by the Bullish group, owner of Bullish, a regulated, digital assets exchange. The Bullish group is majority-owned by Block.one; both companies have interests in a variety of blockchain and digital asset businesses and significant holdings of digital assets, including bitcoin. CoinDesk operates as an independent subsidiary with an editorial committee to protect journalistic independence. CoinDesk employees, including journalists, may receive options in the Bullish group as part of their compensation.

Omkar Godbole

Omkar Godbole is a Co-Managing Editor on CoinDesk's Markets team.


Learn more about Consensus 2024, CoinDesk's longest-running and most influential event that brings together all sides of crypto, blockchain and Web3. Head to consensus.coindesk.com to register and buy your pass now.