Market Wrap: Bitcoin Dull as Drama (Not the Kind You Want) Comes to Axie

Bitcoin trades flat around $19K (with the lowest volatility in two years), while Axie tumbles amid news of token unlocking. PLUS: Analyst Glenn Williams Jr. urges caution when interpreting bitcoin’s MVRV Z-score.

AccessTimeIconOct 20, 2022 at 9:26 p.m. UTC
Updated Nov 14, 2022 at 6:08 p.m. UTC

Bradley Keoun is the managing editor of CoinDesk's Markets team. He owns less than $1,000 each of several cryptocurrencies.

Glenn C Williams Jr, CMT is a Crypto Markets Analyst with an initial background in traditional finance. His experience includes research and analysis of individual cryptocurrencies, defi protocols, and crypto-based funds. He owns BTC, ETH, UNI, DOT, MATIC, and AVAX

Price Action

Bitcoin (BTC) is officially boring: The price was flat on Thursday at just above $19,000, and data shows that the largest cryptocurrency by market value’s 30-day volatility is at its lowest in almost two years.

Today’s drama came from Axie Infinity, the “play-to-earn” gaming platform that has mostly been a disappointment this year. The platform’s once-hot AXS tokens fell 8%, one of day’s worst performers among digital assets, after a CoinDesk report that millions of the tokens are due to be unlocked – meaning that early investors who have been restricted from selling because of vesting periods might now choose to dump the token.

The CoinDesk Market Index (CMI), a broad-based market index that measures the performance of a basket of cryptocurrencies, was relatively flat, down 0.6% over the past 24 hours.

In traditional markets, U.S. stocks rallied after better-than-expected third-quarter corporate earnings reports.

Investors across the board remain cautious, with the Federal Reserve’s next monetary-policy meeting less than two weeks away and steep interest-rate hikes expected.

“Bitcoin has been stuck in a consolidation pattern,” Edward Moya, senior markets analyst at Oanda, wrote in a daily update. “Seems like it will continue until investors can confidently believe the Fed will stop hiking.”

Latest Prices

CoinDesk Market Index (CMI): 925.80 −1.3%

Bitcoin (BTC): $19,043 −0.7%

Ether (ETH): $1,284 −0.7%

S&P 500 daily close: 3,665.78 −0.8%

Gold: $1,632 per troy ounce +0.3%

Ten-year Treasury yield daily close: 4.23% +0.1

Bitcoin, ether and gold prices are taken at approximately 4pm New York time. Bitcoin is the CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index (XBX); Ether is the CoinDesk Ether Price Index (ETX); Gold is the COMEX spot price. Information about CoinDesk Indices can be found at coindesk.com/indices.

Technical Take

A bitcoin market indicator is signaling the asset is undervalued

CoinDesk - Unknown

BTC MVRV Z-Score (Glassnode)

Bitcoin is as undervalued as it has been since 2020, based on a key indicator that relies on data extracted from the blockchain.

The “MVRV Z-Score” is an analytical tool used to assess whether bitcoin (BTC) is looking cheap or expensive on a relative historical basis.

The metric measures the difference between an asset’s market capitalization – the number of tokens outstanding times the spot price – and its “realized cap” – the number of tokens times the price at which the bitcoin last moved over the blockchain.

That difference is then divided by the standard deviation of the asset’s market cap. Similar to other technical indicators, it theoretically highlights areas where an asset is overvalued or undervalued.

Altcoin Roundup

  • Crypto Gaming Token AXS Under Pressure as $215M Unlock Looms for Axie: Some 10 million of Axie’s AXS tokens owned by insiders and early investors will be unlocked soon, creating selling pressure. AXS price has dropped following prior unlocking. Read more here.
  • State Securities Regulators Move to Shut Down NFT Scam Tied to Metaverse Casino: Officials from Alabama, Kentucky and Texas filed cease-and-desist orders against Slotie NFT, alleging the illegal and fraudulent sales of non-fungible tokens (NFT). The action comes as states are increasingly joining forces to tackle crypto crimes. Read more here.

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Asset Ticker Returns DACS Sector
Quant QNT -8.11% Currency
Uniswap UNI -7.96% DeFi
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Sector classifications are provided via the Digital Asset Classification Standard (DACS), developed by CoinDesk Indices to provide a reliable, comprehensive and standardized classification system for digital assets. The CoinDesk Market Index (CMI) is a broad-based index designed to measure the market capitalization weighted performance of the digital asset market subject to minimum trading and exchange eligibility requirements.

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CoinDesk - Unknown

Bradley Keoun is the managing editor of CoinDesk's Markets team. He owns less than $1,000 each of several cryptocurrencies.

CoinDesk - Unknown

Glenn C Williams Jr, CMT is a Crypto Markets Analyst with an initial background in traditional finance. His experience includes research and analysis of individual cryptocurrencies, defi protocols, and crypto-based funds. He owns BTC, ETH, UNI, DOT, MATIC, and AVAX

CoinDesk - Unknown

Bradley Keoun is the managing editor of CoinDesk's Markets team. He owns less than $1,000 each of several cryptocurrencies.

CoinDesk - Unknown

Glenn C Williams Jr, CMT is a Crypto Markets Analyst with an initial background in traditional finance. His experience includes research and analysis of individual cryptocurrencies, defi protocols, and crypto-based funds. He owns BTC, ETH, UNI, DOT, MATIC, and AVAX