Market Wrap: Markets Wait for Fed to Officially Announce What It Has Signaled for Weeks

Bitcoin and ether are down Tuesday ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision.

The CoinDesk Market Index (CMI), a broad-based market index that measures performance across a basket of cryptocurrencies, declined 2.5%

Economic Calendar: Investors and other observers of the U.S. economy await the Federal Reserve’s rate decision Wednesday.

Market Wrap is using the CME Group FedWatch tool as a proxy for rate expectations. The tool uses CME Group Fed Funds Futures contracts to determine probabilities for rate hikes. Currently, the CME tool is predicting an 84% probability of a 75 basis point (BPS) hike, and a 16% probability of a 100 BPS move. A 100 BPS, or 1%, increase would be the highest in four decades.

Any hike will mark the fifth consecutive rate increase by the Fed’s rate-setting committee, the FOMC. Prior rate hikes occurred on:

BTC returns for the 30 days following each rate hike were: -3%, -18%, 3.9% and -18%, respectively.

U.S. Equities: Traditional equities declined, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), tech-heavy Nasdaq composite and S&P 500 falling by 1%, 0.95% and 1.1%, respectively.

Commodities: WTI crude oil declined 1.3% while natural gas fell 0.6%. Copper futures, often used as a measure for overall economic health fell 0.31%, while gold prices declined 0.26%.

The Dollar Index (DXY) increased slightly, rising 0.5%.

BTC Prices Appear Poised to Trade Around ‘Point of Control’

Bitcoin is trading in a tight range and appears positioned to continue that way. As mentioned in Monday’s Market Wrap, bitcoin is suffering from a lack of strong catalysts. What few there are include what the market expects from the Fed on interest rate policy and the extent to which the central bank surprises markets.

The Fed is unlikely to announce anything surprising on the interest rate front. Investors will likely be paying more attention to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments once the FOMC meeting ends because the rate decision has largely been telegraphed for weeks.

If Powell expresses optimism about the state of U.S. inflation, bitcoin’s price will likely move higher. Absent that, all signs point to a situation where the price takes a step back for every step forward.

Technically, BTC is trading below its “point of control” in relation to the Volume Profile Visible Range tool (VPVR). VPVR illustrates trading volume by price level. The point of control, denoted by the red line in today’s chart, signals where the largest amount of activity occurred, and represents an area of high agreement in price.

When an asset trades above its point of control, it implies an area of support because investors are typically willing to step in and buy at this price level. When an asset trades below its point of control, it represents an area of resistance, or the point where investors have historically been willing to sell.

It can also represent opportunity if the current price falls far enough below the POC. BTC’s current price is 7% below its POC, which may not present a compelling enough opportunity to lure significant buying pressure.

Bitcoin’s Average True Range (ATR), which measures the average trading range of an asset over a period, is now 5% of BTC’s current value, less than the 7% spread between price and the POC. Price momentum also appears to signal mild price action because BTC’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 38 implies the crypto is fairly valued at the moment.

The RSI indicator measures price momentum and signals whether an asset is potentially overbought (readings over 70) or oversold (readings below 30). Its current reading is likely to approach an oversold area on further downturns but has not reached that mark yet.

All told, a compressed price range, high price agreement and tepid momentum don’t foreshadow sharp price moves up or down for bitcoin any time soon.

Sector classifications are provided via the Digital Asset Classification Standard (DACS), developed by CoinDesk Indices to provide a reliable, comprehensive and standardized classification system for digital assets. The CoinDesk Market Index (CMI) is a broad-based index designed to measure the market capitalization weighted performance of the digital asset market subject to minimum trading and exchange eligibility requirements.