Guggenheim's Minerd Says Bitcoin Will Drop to $8K. We Checked His Record
A quick recap of some of the noted analyst's key prognostications shows just how mixed his track record has proven.
May 24, 2022 at 7:43 p.m. UTCUpdated May 11, 2023 at 5:30 p.m. UTC
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Scott Minerd, the chief investment officer of Guggenheim Investments, hasn't been shy over the past couple years about making predictions about the price of bitcoin (BTC).
His calls, typically made during interviews with financial media outlets including CNBC and Bloomberg, have garnered headlines thanks to his high-profile stature in traditional finance.
But a quick recap of some of his key prognostications shows just how mixed his track record has proven. (A media representative for Guggenheim didn't immediately return a call from CoinDesk seeking comment.)
December 2020
- Minerd said bitcoin "should be worth around $400,000."
- Bitcoin's price: about $20,000.
- What happened next: Bitcoin climbed to just above $40,000 in January 2021.
February 2021
- Minerd said bitcoin could go to $400,000 to $600,000 “if you consider the supply of bitcoin relative ... to the supply of gold in the world, and what the total value of gold is." He added, however, that the cryptocurrency's rapid rise "smacks of short-term speculation," and that the institutional levels of market participation, while growing, weren't yet big enough to support the price levels at the time.
- Bitcoin's price: about $40,000.
- What happened next: Bitcoin climbed to about $65,000 in April 2021.
June 2021
- Minerd told CNBC that bitcoin could bottom out at $10,000 to $15,000 in its latest swoon.
- Investors shouldn’t be “anxious to be putting money in bitcoin right now," Minerd said, adding that bitcoin could spend the next few years trading sideways before the market turned bullish again.
- Bitcoin's price: about $35,500.
- What happened next: The bitcoin price fell to as low $28,600 in the last several days of June but rallied over the next several months. By the end of September it was changing hands at around $44,000.
October 2021
- Minerd said he was no longer invested in bitcoin.
- "When you don't understand what's happening, get out of the market," Minerd said in an interview with CNBC. "So discipline tells me now I don't fully understand this."
- Bitcoin's price: around $63,000.
- What happened next: Bitcoin rose to a new all-time high around $69,000 in November 2021 before retreating and then tumbling for the next few months. In January it fell as low as $32,950.
May 23, 2022
- Minerd told CNBC bitcoin could fall to $8,000.
- “When you break below $30,000 consistently, $8,000 is the ultimate bottom. So I think we have a lot more room to the downside, especially with the [U.S. Federal Reserve] being restrictive.”
- Bitcoin's price: around $29,000.
- What happens next: ?
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Bradley Keoun is the managing editor of CoinDesk's Tech & Protocols team. He owns less than $1,000 each of several cryptocurrencies.