Goldman Sees Little US Economic Impact From Lower Cryptocurrency Prices
The stock market decline has had a much larger effect on U.S. household net worth, the bank said.
Any drag on aggregate U.S. spending from the recent decline in cryptocurrency market is likely to be very small, Goldman Sachs (GS) said in a research report Thursday. There’s also very limited scope for an increase in labor force participation because of the declines, it said.
The bank said an important consideration is the share of crypto wealth held by investors in other countries. Goldman estimates that U.S. households own roughly one-third of the global crypto market’s $1.3 trillion market cap. This means that the recent decline in the market cap is very small relative to U.S. household net worth, which stood at $150 trillion in the fourth quarter 2021.
Recent crypto price declines have likely reduced U.S. crypto holdings by about $300 billion, and these holdings now account for only 0.3% of household net worth, the note said.
In contrast, equities accounted for around 33% of household net worth at the end of last year, and the recent fall in stock markets has likely reduced household net worth by about $8 trillion, the note added.
Tighter financial conditions will result in a rapid slowdown in growth and spending this year, but any incremental impact from the recent fall in crypto prices will likely be “modest”, the report said.
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