From markets to real estate to the dollar to retail, the data on whether the economy is recovering or not is hella confused.
The economy is nothing if not confounding right now.
Across every domain, from real estate to oil to retail, there are bull signals and bear signals.
Signals we're tracking:
- Markets - strong stock recovery vs. growth in cash deposits
- Employment - growth in jobs vs. persistent continuing jobless claims
- Retail - growth in foot traffic vs. demand destruction
- Oil - growth in demand (but not in economically productive diesel)
- Real estate - surge in mortgage applications vs. worst home sales since 2010
- Dollar - declining confidence vs. there is no alternative
- COVID-19 - reduced death rates in the U.S. vs. growing caseload
What’s the answer? Is this just a narrative mirage recovery? Listen and find out.
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