- Bitcoin's price hit fresh six-month high earlier today, further strengthening the case for a rally to $6,500 (100-week moving average).
- BTC may witness a pullback to levels near $6,100 before rising toward that level, though, according to the hourly chart.
- A bull flag breakout on the total market capitalization chart for all other cryptos, if confirmed, could be considered a sign the much-anticipated altcoin rally has begun.
- Among those, litecoin could shine bright as both fundamentals and technicals have aligned in favor of the bulls.
Bitcoin's (BTC) ascent continues with prices hitting new multi-month highs earlier today, and other top cryptocurrencies may soon join the party.
Bitcoin violated the resistance zone of $6,055–$6,100 with a UTC close at $6,156 on Thursday and reached a six-month high of $6,336 on Bitstamp at 07:40 UTC today.
Prices have now hit multi-month highs on three consecutive days – a sign of strong bullish sentiment. With every move higher, both the short- and long-term bull cases presented by several technical indicators over the last few weeks have gained strength.
BTC, therefore, appears on track to test the 100-week price average, currently at $6,506 – a level that last came into play last November.
As of writing, the cryptocurrency is changing hands at $6,260 on Bitstamp, representing a 3.45 percent gain on a 24-hour basis.
Daily and weekly charts
BTC continues to establish bullish higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart (above left) with key moving averages trending north.
The relative strength index (RSI) is reporting overbought conditions with above-70 reading. That signal, however, would gain credence if and when the momentum starts weakening. As of writing, the bulls are showing no signs of exhaustion.
Further, the weekly RSI (above right) is currently printing the strongest bullish signal in over 15 months.
On the hourly chart, the RSI has breached the ascending trendline to the downside and is rolling over from overbought levels. Hence, we may see a minor pullback to the ascending trendline support, currently at $6,140, before rising toward $6,500.
Altcoins tease breakout
While bitcoin has doubled in value over the last six weeks, altcoins have underperformed big time, as indicated by the massive depreciation of their BTC-denominated exchange rates.
- The top 10 altcoins by market capitalization (excluding stablecoin tether/USDT) are reporting double-digit losses on a 30-day basis.
- Stellar (XLM), down 40 percent, is the biggest loser, followed by cardano (ADA) and tron (TRX).
- With a 14 percent drop, Binance coin (BNB) is the best performing major altcoin.
The numbers indicate a lack of interest in altcoins despite BTC's confirmation of the long-term bullish reversal on April 2.
The battered altcoins, however, could soon find some love, as their combined market capitalization seems to have charted a bullish technical pattern.
Total altcoin market capitalization
The bull flag seen in the above chart is a continuation pattern that often ends up accelerating the preceding rally.
A convincing break above the upper edge of the flag, currently at $73.65 billion, would confirm a flag breakout and signal a continuation of the rise from lows near $45 billion seen in February.
A flag breakout, if confirmed, could be considered a sign the much-anticipated altcoin rally has begun. As of writing, the total altcoin market cap is seen at $72 billion.
Among the major altcoins, litecoin (LTC) could shine bright, as its mining reward halving is due in less than 90 days.
The process aimed at curbing inflation by reducing mining rewards by half every four years tends to put a strong bid under the cryptocurrency for months in advance, according to historical data.
Litecoin daily chart
Litecoin's channel breakout indicates the path of least resistance is to the higher side. Prices, therefore, could rise above $100 ahead of the reward halving event.
Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.
The leader in news and information on cryptocurrency, digital assets and the future of money, CoinDesk is a media outlet that strives for the highest journalistic standards and abides by a strict set of editorial policies. CoinDesk is an independent operating subsidiary of Digital Currency Group, which invests in cryptocurrencies and blockchain startups. As part of their compensation, certain CoinDesk employees, including editorial employees, may receive exposure to DCG equity in the form of stock appreciation rights, which vest over a multi-year period. CoinDesk journalists are not allowed to purchase stock outright in DCG.
Learn more about Consensus 2023, CoinDesk’s longest-running and most influential event that brings together all sides of crypto, blockchain and Web3. Head to consensus.coindesk.com to register and buy your pass now.