Bitcoin Eyes Test of Key Price Hurdle in First Since November

Bitcoin looks set to test the crucial 50-day simple moving average (SMA) for the first time since November 8.

AccessTimeIconJan 3, 2019 at 11:00 a.m. UTC
Updated Sep 13, 2021 at 8:43 a.m. UTC
10 Years of Decentralizing the Future
May 29-31, 2024 - Austin, TexasThe biggest and most established global hub for everything crypto, blockchain and Web3.Register Now

Bitcoin (BTC) could test a key resistance line for the first time in nearly two months.

The widely followed 50-day simple moving average (SMA) line is currently located at $3,940 – $100 above bitcoin's current price of $3,840 – according to Bitstamp data.

The crucial SMA line was last put to test on Nov. 8. Back then, the SMA was located at $6,450 and was serving as a stiff resistance.

On Nov. 14, BTC nosedived below $6,000, putting the bears back into the driver's seat.  As a result, the gap between the 50-day SMA line and price widened sharply in the following two weeks. Notably, on Nov. 25, the 50-day MA line was located at least $2500 above price.

That spread, however, has narrowed sharply in the last two weeks, indicating waning bearish pressures. Further, price chart analysis indicates that the bulls have won control, at least for the short-term.

BTC, therefore, could test and possibly break above the 50-day SMA line of $3,940 in the next day or two.

Daily chart


As seen above, BTC ran into offers near the 50-day SMA earlier today. Notably, at 00:05 UTC, BTC was trading $40 short of the 50-day SMA.

Despite the pullback from intraday highs near $3,900, the outlook remains bullish, as the positive divergence of the relative strength index (RSI), confirmed on Dec. 18, is still valid.

Further, 5- and 10-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) are beginning to curl upwards. The RSI is also biased bullish above 50.00.

The 50-day SMA is indeed trending south, indicating a bearish setup. The long-term averages, however, are lagging indicators. As a result, the price action always supersedes the long-term moving average lines.

It is worth noting that a break above the 50-day SMA, if confirmed, would open the doors to $4,170 – neckline of the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. The 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) is also located just below the neckline hurdle. So, $4,170 is the level to beat for the bulls.

6-hour chart


The triangle breakout seen in the 6-hour chart indicates that the rally from the December low of $3,122 has resumed.

The RSI is printing bullish levels above 50.00. Meanwhile, the stacking order of the 50-candle MA above the 100-candle MA is also a classic bull indicator.


  • BTC could rise above the 50-day SMA of $3,940 and extend the rally to $4,170 in the short-term.
  • A UTC close above $4,170 (neckline hurdle + 50-day EMA) would confirm an inverse head-and-shoulders bullish reversal and open up upside toward the psychological hurdle of $5,000.
  • The bullish case would weaken if prices drop below the support at $3,566 (Dec. 27 low).

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View


Please note that our privacy policy, terms of use, cookies, and do not sell my personal information has been updated.

CoinDesk is an award-winning media outlet that covers the cryptocurrency industry. Its journalists abide by a strict set of editorial policies. In November 2023, CoinDesk was acquired by the Bullish group, owner of Bullish, a regulated, digital assets exchange. The Bullish group is majority-owned by; both companies have interests in a variety of blockchain and digital asset businesses and significant holdings of digital assets, including bitcoin. CoinDesk operates as an independent subsidiary with an editorial committee to protect journalistic independence. CoinDesk employees, including journalists, may receive options in the Bullish group as part of their compensation.

Learn more about Consensus 2024, CoinDesk's longest-running and most influential event that brings together all sides of crypto, blockchain and Web3. Head to to register and buy your pass now.