October Close May Prove Decisive for Bitcoin Price

Bitcoin's monthly close today may reveal the cryptocurrency's directional bias after a long period of low volatility.

AccessTimeIconOct 31, 2018 at 11:00 a.m. UTC
Updated Sep 13, 2021 at 8:32 a.m. UTC

Bitcoin's (BTC) monthly close today may reveal the cryptocurrency's directional bias after a long period of low volatility.

If prices fail to defend long-term support at the 21-month exponential moving average (EMA), currently at $6,108, things may get tougher for BTC's bulls.

This is evident from the fact that price pullbacks witnessed in June, July, and September had ended near the EMA. Further, brief dips below that level quickly bounced back.

The price action suggests that the bears have likely run out of steam and BTC may have carved out a bottom close to $6,000.

However, that argument would lose credence if prices close today below $6,108, signaling a resumption of the sell-off from the record highs reached in December last year.

At press time, BTC is trading at $6,265 on Coinbase, having hit a two-week low of $6,211 on Monday.

Monthly chart

btcusd-monthly-cross

As can be seen above, the 5- and 10-month EMAs produced a bearish cross last month for the first time since 2014, meaning the bears are already in control here.

Hence, a close below the 21-month EMA will likely prove costly.

The prospects of a bullish reversal above $7,400 (September high) would improve if BTC defends the EMA support for the fifth month straight.

View

  • A bearish close below the 21-month EMA may allow a drop to levels below the June low of $5,777.
  • A defense of the crucial support would be encouraging, however, a bullish reversal would be confirmed only if BTC ends a series of lower highs with a move above $7,400.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin and USD image via Shutterstock; Charts by Trading View

Disclosure

Please note that our privacy policy, terms of use, cookies, and do not sell my personal information has been updated.

CoinDesk is an award-winning media outlet that covers the cryptocurrency industry. Its journalists abide by a strict set of editorial policies. In November 2023, CoinDesk was acquired by the Bullish group, owner of Bullish, a regulated, digital assets exchange. The Bullish group is majority-owned by Block.one; both companies have interests in a variety of blockchain and digital asset businesses and significant holdings of digital assets, including bitcoin. CoinDesk operates as an independent subsidiary with an editorial committee to protect journalistic independence. CoinDesk employees, including journalists, may receive options in the Bullish group as part of their compensation.