50-Day Moving Average Is Newest Hurdle for Battered Bitcoin Price
Bitcoin could feel the pull of gravity in the next 24 hours, having failed to beat a key moving average hurdle for four days straight.
:format(webp)/downloads.coindesk.com/arc/failsafe/user/1x1.png)
Oct 2, 2018 at 11:00 a.m. UTC:format(webp)/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/coindesk/HCXNFZZ63RCYPEJ2TVKX5ME7UA.jpg)
Bitcoin's price looks vulnerable to modest slippage in the next 24 hours, as its persistent failure to pass a key moving average hurdle could embolden the bears.
The leading cryptocurrency has been in a narrow sideways drift in recent days, with the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) proving a tough nut to crack since Saturday.
BTC's inability to cross the 50-day hurdle indicates that the bullish move from the Sept. 19 low of $6,100 has lost momentum. As a result, the door is now open for the bears to make their presence felt over the next 24 hours, and prices could be forced down to $6,300.
As of writing, BTC is changing hands at $6,580 on Bitfinex, having faced rejection at the 50-day EMA level of $6,649 earlier today.
Daily chart
:format(webp)/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/coindesk/CN2HHA5WNNCX3CQSY5I2Y34B7Q.png)
As seen on the daily chart, the 50-day EMA has been capping the upside in BTC since late September. It is worth noting that BTC is trading below all three major moving averages – 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMA – which could be considered a bearish sign.
However, these averages are flatlined, which indicates that BTC has lacked a clear directional bias for far too long. As a result, a big move in either direction is overdue.
4-hour chart
:format(webp)/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/coindesk/6PANJGFDOFEYHII6FS3WUA35AA.png)
Over on the 4-hour chart, BTC is trading just below the lower edge of the ascending triangle, meaning the bull failure at the 50-day EMA is beginning to prove costly.
Furthermore, the relative strength index (RSI) has fallen back below 50.00 in bearish territory.
A downside break would be confirmed if the current or the next 4-hour candle closes below the triangle support. In that case, BTC could fall quickly to $6,328 (Sept. 28 low).
View
- BTC's persistent failure to move past the 50-day EMA could end up yielding an ascending triangle breakdown on the 4-hour chart.
- An ascending triangle breakdown, if confirmed, would open up downside towards the immediate support of $6,328 (Sept. 28 low). A violation there would expose the next support, lined up at $6,100.
- On the higher side, acceptance above the 50-day EMA of $6,649 would put the bulls back in a commanding position.
Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.
Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; Charts by Trading View
DISCLOSURE
Please note that our privacy policy, terms of use, cookies, and do not sell my personal information has been updated.
The leader in news and information on cryptocurrency, digital assets and the future of money, CoinDesk is a media outlet that strives for the highest journalistic standards and abides by a strict set of editorial policies. CoinDesk is an independent operating subsidiary of Digital Currency Group, which invests in cryptocurrencies and blockchain startups. As part of their compensation, certain CoinDesk employees, including editorial employees, may receive exposure to DCG equity in the form of stock appreciation rights, which vest over a multi-year period. CoinDesk journalists are not allowed to purchase stock outright in DCG.
Learn more about Consensus 2024, CoinDesk’s longest-running and most influential event that brings together all sides of crypto, blockchain and Web3. Head to consensus.coindesk.com to register and buy your pass now.