A growing number of economists and analysts – and even the Wall Street firm Goldman Sachs – have speculated this year that the U.S. dollar might be on the cusp of losing its status as the dominant reserve currency for central banks around the world. 

That possibility has helped to support this year’s 50% increase in prices for bitcoin, seen by many cryptocurrency investors as a hedge against a dollar devaluation. 

But CoinDesk’s Omkar Godbole reported Tuesday that, according to one prominent foreign-exchange analyst, the dollar’s value could decline significantly even if the U.S. currency keeps its majority share of global central-bank reserves for the foreseeable future. As of the most recent data, the percentage is around 60%. 

“Backing the dollar is the world’s biggest, deepest and the most transparent government bond market,” Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex and author of the book “Making Sense of the Dollar,” told CoinDesk in a video chat on Wednesday. “I just don’t know how bitcoin can replace the greenback from that viewpoint.”

Read More: Bitcoin Unlikely to Replace US Dollar as Global Reserve: Marc Chandler

marc-chandler-video-screencap
Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex and author of the book "Making Sense of the Dollar," talks with CoinDesk's Omkar Godbole about the future of the U.S. currency.
(CoinDesk)

Bitcoin Watch

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Bitcoin daily and weekly charts.
Source: TradingView

Bitcoin’s price bounce from Friday’s low of $10,380 looks to have stalled, and the cryptocurrency remains trapped in a contracting triangle or a narrowing price range. 

Such low-volatility price consolidations often end with a violent move on either side. 

Some investors may be anticipating a range breakdown, given the weekly chart MACD histogram has crossed below zero, a sign of a bearish shift in momentum. 

The indicator, however, is based on backward-looking moving averages and lags prices. As such, its reliability is under question. 

Besides, broader sentiment in the options market is bullish, according to three- and six-month put-call skews, which measure the cost of puts relative to calls. 

Further,  on-chain data shows the market is currently witnessing a bigger influx of new investors than it did at the height of the bull market frenzy in late 2017. That is a major bullish sign, according to popular analyst Willy Woo. 

– Omkar Godbole

Read More: Bitcoin’s Options Market Retains Long-Term Bull Bias Despite Sluggish Price

Token Watch

Wrapped bitcoin (wBTC): Record $616M of wrapped bitcoin minted in September.

Ether (ETH): Futures contracts on BitMEX for Ethereum’s native token drop by half in wake of U.S. regulators filing charges against Seychelles-based cryptocurrency exchange. 

What's Hot

FCA finalizes ban on sale of crypto derivatives to UK retail consumers (CoinDesk) 

74-year-old software magnate-turned-crypto-bull John McAfee is arrested in Spain for alleged tax evasion (CoinDesk)

Binance cryptocurrency exchange abandons plan to form strategic alliance with Japanese trading platform TaoTao (CoinDesk)

US Senator Toomey highlights digital currency regulations as he eyes banking panel chairmanship (CoinDesk)

The central bank of Estonia, is undertaking a “multi-year” research project that will investigate the suitability of a blockchain-based digital currency (CoinDesk)

China’s digital-yuan pilot has racked up $162M of transactions (South China Morning Post)

Fidelity, Vanguard, Schwab funds have been loading up on crypto mining stocks (CoinDesk)

Central Bank of Oman warns that crypto assets are “fraught with high risks” (CoinDesk)

Analogs

The latest on the economy and traditional finance

A report from legal services firm Epiq shows U.S. commercial bankruptcy filings are up 33% so far in 2020 up 78% from 2019 (Reuters)

Australia’s cash rate has been left at record lows by the country’s central bank amid further rumors it will bolster monetary easing (CNBC)

Asian stocks have risen to two week highs on news of U.S. Donald Trump’s ‘recovery’ from COVID-19 (Reuters)

Asian sales of ‘healthy’ alcoholic beverages is on the rise amid consumer behavioural changes in the face of COVID-19 (Nikkei Asian Review)

K-Shaped economy hides reality of 11M of U.S. jobs lost in pandemic recession, versus 8.7M in the post-Lehman Brothers recession of 2007-09 (WSJ)

Investors bet on Swiss franc’s appreciation despite central bank’s intervention to weaken the currency (WSJ)

Banks holding $2T+ of commercial real estate debt as economy shifts away from offices toward remote working, SEC report shows (SEC):

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Chart from SEC report illustrating interconnections in U.S. commercial real-estate market.
Source: Securities and Exchange Commission

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Disclosure
The leader in blockchain news, CoinDesk is a media outlet that strives for the highest journalistic standards and abides by a strict set of editorial policies. CoinDesk is an independent operating subsidiary of Digital Currency Group, which invests in cryptocurrencies and blockchain startups.