Crypto Traders See 20% Chance of Bitcoin Topping $70K by April End: DeFi Options Marketplace Lyra

Bitcoin has rallied 35% in three weeks, with mining reward halving due in April.

AccessTimeIconFeb 16, 2024 at 7:25 a.m. UTC
Updated Mar 8, 2024 at 9:39 p.m. UTC
  • Lyra’s decentralized bitcoin options marketplace suggests a 20% probability of prices rising above $70,000 by the end of April.
  • Lyra recently listed options with an April 26 expiry, allowing traders to speculate on price trends ahead of and following bitcoin’s reward halving due in mid-April.
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  • There is a one-in-five chance of bitcoin (BTC) crossing $70,000 by the end of April, according to options data from decentralized marketplace Lyra Finance.

    "Lyra’s markets are implying a roughly 20% chance of bitcoin hitting fresh all-time highs (trading higher than $70,000) by April 26," Nick Forster, Lyra's founder and former Wall Street options trader, told CoinDesk in an interview.

    Traders on Lyra had correctly positioned themselves for bitcoin’s recent move above $50,000. Their latest view – the low probability of a record move above $70,000 by the end of April – might be a surprise.

    That’s because bitcoin has risen 35% to $52,000 in three weeks, the highest since late 2021, exhibiting a robust bullish momentum fueled by strong inflows into the U.S.-based spot ETFs.

    The consensus among crypto traders is that bitcoin could see further gains as fiscal policy in the U.S. remains the most stimulative in years, compensating for higher interest rates. Bitcoin blockchain’s supposedly bullish quadrennial mining reward halving is also due in April, and global recession probability has declined to its lowest since December 2021, supporting risk-taking across all corners of the financial market.

    Options are derivatives that give the purchaser the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an underlying asset at a predetermined price at a later date. A call option gives someone the right to buy an asset, while a put option confers the right to sell. The way options are priced at a given time offers clues on where sophisticated traders see the market heading in the coming weeks and months.

    Lyra is the world’s biggest decentralized crypto options venue, accounting for 50% of the global decentralized exchange (DEX) options volume of $32 million in the past 24 hours, according to DeFiLlama.

    The protocol recently listed bitcoin options with an expiry date of April 26, allowing traders to bet on the price action ahead of and immediately following the reward halving, which is due in mid-April and is programmed to reduce the pace of BTC supply expansion by 50%.

    “Early trading activity [in the April 26 expiry] has been concentrated in the upside, with call buyers lighting up the $64,000 and $70,000 strikes,” Forster said.

    Edited by Parikshit Mishra.


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    Omkar Godbole

    Omkar Godbole is a Co-Managing Editor on CoinDesk's Markets team.