$100 Doldrums: Bitcoin’s Price Is Stuck In Its Tightest Range Since 2017

Omkar Godbole
Oct 26, 2018 at 11:10 UTC
Updated Oct 26, 2018 at 11:46 UTC
markets

The bitcoin market is experiencing the lowest volatility it’s seen for 18 months.

Daily volatility, as represented by the spread between the price high and low, fell below $100 on Oct. 19 and has remained under that psychological mark to date, according to data from CoinDesk’s Bitcoin Price Index (BPI). That’s the longest volatility has been so low since April 2017.

It is worth noting that BTC averaged around $1,200 in April and early May of 2017. Further, the average daily volatility during that period was $33, that is, prices moved 2.75 percent on a daily basis. Hence, back then, a $100 daily volatility reading was a normal thing.

As of now, BTC is averaging around $6,500 and the average daily volatility has dropped to $56 in the last seven days, meaning prices are moving just 0.86 percent on a daily basis. So, it seems safe to say that we are witnessing an unprecedented period of low volatility.

Such calm periods often end in a big move on either side. However, bitcoin price volatility has been falling over months now and a promised sustained shift to either bulls or bears has so far not materialized.

Under these conditions, the best thing to do is to jot down the key levels and trade the breakout.

Weekly chart

Bull breakout scenario: Move above $7,400

A break above the September high of $7,400 would put an end to the series of lower price highs (marked by circles). The bull breakout, if confirmed, would open the doors to a stronger rally to $10,000. On the way higher, BTC may encounter resistance at the July highs near $8,500.

Bear breakout scenario: BTC finds acceptance below $6,000

As seen in the weekly chart above, BTC seems to have carved out a bottom around $6,000. The likes of billionaire investor Novogratz have also echoed similar sentiments recently. As a result, $6,000 is the level to beat for the bears.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View 

The leader in blockchain news, CoinDesk is a media outlet that strives for the highest journalistic standards and abides by a strict set of editorial policies. CoinDesk is an independent operating subsidiary of Digital Currency Group, which invests in cryptocurrencies and blockchain startups.


This article is intended as a news item to inform our readers of various events and developments that affect, or that might in the future affect, the value of the cryptocurrency described above. The information contained herein is not intended to provide, and it does not provide, sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision, and you should not rely on this information for that purpose. The information presented herein is accurate only as of its date, and it was not prepared by a research analyst or other investment professional. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency before deciding to purchase or sell any such instruments.