- Bitcoin's drop to four-week lows has confirmed a bearish continuation pattern on the hourly chart.
- Indicators on the three-day chart are calling a deeper drop to key average support at $7,714.
- A high-volume bounce from the $7,751–$7,714 support range would neutralize the immediate bearish setup.
- A violation of the lower-highs setup with a move above $8,631 is needed to confirm a bull reversal.
Having dropped to one-month lows below $8,000, bitcoin is now eyeing the first test of a key average support, now at $7,714, since April.
The top cryptocurrency by market value fell more than 2.4 percent in the 60 minutes to 08:00 UTC today to hit a low of $7,875 – a level last seen on Oct. 25, according to Bitstamp data. The drop marked a downside break of a 48-hour narrowing price range seen above $8,000.
Notably, with a slide to levels below $7,900, bitcoin has erased 80 percent of the rally from $7,293 to $10,350 seen in the second half of October.
On a month-to-date basis, he cryptocurrency is now reporting a loss of over 13 percent. Further, the cryptocurrency is trading in the red for the fourth straight week.
The dismal performance contradicts the positive seasonality factor: bitcoin has put on a good show in November in six out of the last eight years. Notably, prices gained for six straight years in November, starting from 2012 to 2017, before falling hard in November 2018.
The hefty month-to-date losses also contradict historical data which show bitcoin picks up a strong bid six months ahead of the miners' reward halving, a supply cut next scheduled for May 2020.
That said, the repeated failure to hold above a descending (bearish) 5-month MA in the first eight days of the month had raised the possibility of a drop to $8,000.
The technical charts are now calling further decline to support at $7,714 – the 100-candle moving average on the three day chart. That would be the first test of the crucial average support since the end of April.
As of writing, BTC is changing hands at $7,920 on Bitstamp, representing a 1.30 percent drop on a 24-hour basis.
Hourly and 3-day charts
The contracting triangle breakdown seen on the hourly chart is backed by a solid rise in trading volumes and indicates a resumption of the downtrend.
The MACD histogram on the three-day chart, an indicator used to identify trend changes and strength, has dropped below zero, confirming a bearish bias. Meanwhile, the 14-day relative strength index is reporting bearish conditions with a below-50 reading.
BTC, therefore, looks set to test the three-day 100-candle MA at $7,714. Note that the ascending (bullish) 10-month MA is also located at $7,751.
As a result, $7,751–$7,714 is the key support range for BTC. A strong bounce from there to levels above $8,000 would neutralize the immediate bearish view.
The series of lower highs and lower lows seen on the 8-hour chart indicate the path of least resistance is to the downside.
A short-term bullish reversal would be confirmed if and when prices rise above the Nov. 17 high of $8,631, invalidating the bearish lower-highs setup.