- Bitcoin registered losses for a record sixth straight month in January, reinforcing the bearish view put forward by the moving average studies on the monthly chart. As a result, a re-test of December lows near $3,100 could be on the cards.
- The odds of a sustained rise to $4,000 would improve if the 200-week moving average at $3,298 serves as strong support and ends up pushing prices above $3,658 (high of last Saturday’s gravestone doji candle).
Bitcoin’s price fell for a record sixth consecutive month in January, after an early bounce to $4,000 failed to entice mass buying.
The leading cryptocurrency by market value closed yesterday at $3,413 on Bitstamp – down 7.59 percent from the monthly opening price of $3,693. Prices dropped 9, 6, 4.4, 37 and 7 percent, respectively, in the previous five months.
The second longest run of monthly losses dates back to 2011 when prices dropped 81 percent during the five months from July to November.
BTC has fared a little better in the last six months, with a 63 percent loss over the period. That number, however, could rise in the coming months, as the primary trend is still bearish, as discussed yesterday.
Further, the price action witnessed over the last four weeks indicates that the sell-on-rise mentality is still intact.
The cryptocurrency jumped above $4,000 on Jan. 6, after establishing a bullish higher-low near $3,550 at the end of December. The bullish breakout, however, failed to entice the buyers. In fact, bullish bets tanked on Jan. 10, driving prices back to $3,500
That said, BTC may end the six-month downward trend in February if the 200-week moving average (MA) support, currently at $3,298, fuels a strong move above crucial resistance near $3,650. As of writing, BTC is trading at $3,400.
On the monthly chart, the 5- and 10-candle MAs are trending south, indicating a bearish setup. These averages are currently located at $4,154 and $5,599, respectively, and could cap rallies, if any, in the near-term.
Validating the bearish averages is the 14-month relative strength index (RSI), which has hit record lows below the low of 44.50 seen in January 2015.
The bearish setup would be invalidated only above $4,210 – the 78.6 percent Fibonacci retracement of the record low-record high. That level has capped the upside in the last two months.
Weekly and daily chart
As seen above, the 200-week moving average (MA) served as strong support seven weeks ago. Another defense of the long-term MA will likely weaken bearish pressures and could yield a break above $3,658 (the high of last Saturday’s gravestone doji candle).
A convincing move above that level would invalidate short-term bearish setup and open the doors for a sustained move to $4,000.
Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency at the time of writing.