Bitcoin Likely to Close Below Key Price Support in First Since 2015

Omkar Godbole
Nov 27, 2018 at 11:01 UTC
Updated Nov 27, 2018 at 16:09 UTC
markets

Bitcoin looks set to end the month below a key long-term support level for the first time in three years.

The 21-month exponential moving average (EMA), which served as a price floor for five months straight, was convincingly breached on Nov. 15. As of writing, the former support-turned-resistance is located at $5,896, while BTC is changing hands at $3,650 on Bitstamp.

The drop below the EMA support marks the resumption of the sell-off from the record high of $20,000 reached in December, meaning the path of least resistance is to the downside. So, while an oversold bounce could be seen in the short-term, a recovery all the way back to levels above the 21-month EMA is ruled out for now.

Therefore, a monthly close on Friday (UTC time) below the 21-month EMA looks like a done deal. Notably, this would be the first monthly close below the EMA support since October 2015.

Monthly chart

As seen above, the 21-month EMA restricted the downside from June to October. The persistent bear failure, however, failed to entice the bulls.

The chart also shows that BTC’s last break below the 21-month EMA witnessed in September 2014 remained valid for 13 months. If that historical data is a guide, then the cryptocurrency could stay below the resistance level for some time.

4-hour chart

The outlook for the next 24 hours remains bearish, as BTC is trapped in a falling channel on the 4-hour chart. Further, the stacking order of the 50-candle EMA below the 100-candle EMA, below the 200-candle EMA is a classic bearish indicator.

The relative strength index (RSI), though, is showing a bullish divergence. That pattern, however, would gain credence only if prices manage to clear the immediate resistance at $4,000.

View

  • BTC’s drop below the crucial 21-month EMA support may have lessened the odds of leaving the bear market for possibly months more.
  • A break below Sunday’s low of $3,474 would mean the recovery to $4,000 was just another dead cat bounce and prices could then drop to psychological support of $3,000.
  • BTC may test $4,500 (upper edge of the falling channel) in the next 24 hours if prices clear the psychological hurdle of $4,000, validating the bullish divergence of the 4-hour chart RSI.
  • The outlook as per the monthly chart would turn bullish above the new resistance of the 21-month EMA, currently at $5,896.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View

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This article is intended as a news item to inform our readers of various events and developments that affect, or that might in the future affect, the value of the cryptocurrency described above. The information contained herein is not intended to provide, and it does not provide, sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision, and you should not rely on this information for that purpose. The information presented herein is accurate only as of its date, and it was not prepared by a research analyst or other investment professional. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency before deciding to purchase or sell any such instruments.