Bitcoin (BTC) has bounced back above $8,500, but the rally is not backed by decent trading volumes, the technical charts indicate.

The cryptocurrency closed below key technical levels on Thursday, signaling a bearish breakdown, but the sell-off unexpectedly ran out of steam at $7,925 a day later. Subsequently, bitcoin gained more than $500 over the weekend, rising back above resistance at the 50-day moving average.

At time of writing, BTC is changing hands at around $8,530, having clocked a six-day high of $8,644 earlier today.

While last week’s bearish trend seems to have run out of steam (as seen in the charts below), the weekend’s low-volume rally risks trapping the bulls on the wrong side of the market.

4-hour chart

The inverse head-and-shoulders breakout indicates short-term bullish trend reversal – i.e. the pullback from the high of $9,990 has ended and the breakout has opened the doors to $9,000 (target as per the measured height method.

Daily chart

The daily chart shows yesterday’s candle closed (as per UTC) above Saturday’s doji candle high of $8,468, signaling a bullish reversal. Further, the 5-day and 10-day moving averages have shed bearish bias (are no longer sloping downwards).

As a result, the probability that bitcoin will rally to $9,000 this week is high. However, the bullish case significantly weakens if we take into account the figures for trading volume.

Volume is an important indicator, as it shows the level of interest in bitcoin. A rally backed by high volumes means greater reliance can be placed on the bullish move. Conversely, a low volume rally trends to end up being a bull trap.

In BTC’s case, currently, trading volume on Bitfinex continues to decline and more importantly remained low alongside positive price action, as seen in the chart above. Further, trading volume across all exchanges fell below $5 billion over the weekend – the lowest level since April 11, according to CoinMarketCap.

Thus, the sustainability of the rally seen over the weekend is under question.

View

  • BTC rally lacks substance (low volumes), hence the outlook is likely neutral, despite the inverse head-and-shoulders breakout (4-hour chart) and the bullish doji reversal (daily chart).
  • A failure to hold above $8,475 (inverse head-and-shoulders neckline) would revive the bearish view and allow a drop to Friday’s low of $7,925.
  • On the higher side, only a high volume move above the 100-day moving average, currently seen at $8,857, would open the doors to $10,000.

Running up steps image via Shutterstock

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This article is intended as a news item to inform our readers of various events and developments that affect, or that might in the future affect, the value of the cryptocurrency described above. The information contained herein is not intended to provide, and it does not provide, sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision, and you should not rely on this information for that purpose. The information presented herein is accurate only as of its date, and it was not prepared by a research analyst or other investment professional. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency before deciding to purchase or sell any such instruments.