Several well-known cryptocurrencies are trading above their 200-day moving averages, a development typically considered a sign of a healthy market.
A moving average (MA) is simply an ongoing calculation of the closing prices of an asset over a specified period of time, but is also a tool traders use to gauge the asset’s trend direction as well as support and resistance levels.
While a moving average of any length can be used, the 200-day moving average is a standard in financial analysis. Put simply, an asset trading above the 200-day MA is considered bullish (likely to move higher), while one trading below it is considered bearish (likely to move lower).
Since the long-time market leader bitcoin is not currently trading above its 200-day moving average, one could be forgiven for assuming all other cryptocurrencies are following its footsteps.
However, that is not the case.
Signs of life emerge
Of the top 20 largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization as per CoinMarketCap, both the BTC and USD pairs of litecoin (LTC), binance coin (BNB), Tron (TRX) and Maker (MKR) are currently trading above their respective 200-day moving averages.
Both pairs trading above the moving average indicates the markets for LTC, BNB, TRX, and MKR are much stronger than those with acceptance above just one trading pair moving average or those with acceptance above neither – most of which fall under the latter category.
Indeed, the four cryptocurrencies have the most bullish markets, but as can be seen above, their performance is not yet the norm. Twelve of the top 20 cryptocurrencies have neither their BTC or USD trading pairs above the 200-day MA, and as the data below shows, several are still very far away.
Distances to the 200-day MA
Of the remaining top 20 cryptocurrencies by market cap that are not trading above their USD-denominated 200-day MA, bitcoin cash (BCH) is by a large margin the farthest away from achieving a healthy market while EOS is the closest.
According to data from CoinMarketCap, the price of BCH/USD would need to increase 124 percent in order to reach its 200-day moving average while EOS/USD would need to increase just 8 percent.
It’s worth noting Bitcoin Cash underwent a hard fork in November resulting in the creation of two new cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Cash ABC and Bitcoin SV. Bitcoin Cash ABC retained the BCH/USD ticker on most exchanges so its longtime price history may not be the best reflection of the current state of the Bitcoin Cash ABC market, given the fork has existed less than 200 days.
While it does express a weak market, an asset trading excessively far below its 200-day moving average is not always a negative indication. It can also be a sign of extreme oversold market conditions, similar to how the Mayer Multiple is used to gauge bitcoin’s market conditions based on its relation to the 200-day MA.
With that in mind, the assets that are farthest from their respect 200-day moving averages like bitcoin cash and Zcash, which needs to increase 71 percent to reach its 200 day MA, could be seen as the most overdue for a positive correction.
Disclosure: The author holds BTC, LTC, ETH, ZEC, AST, REQ, OMG, FUEL, ZIL, 1st and AMP at the time of writing.