Willy Woo is an entrepreneur, angel investor, derivatives trader and cryptocurrency enthusiast.
In this guest feature, Woo takes a tongue-in-cheek look at bitcoin's historical market performance, ultimately proposing a bitcoin-specific macroscopic trading pattern he believes can predict the price.
Here at Woobull Labs, we take data driven analysis very seriously. Today, I'm pleased to present the culmination of four years of data gathering and analysis on bitcoin trader psychology.
The sketch above depicts the basic rig we used for our epic research.
The dataset includes readings over four years at 10 minute intervals (210,240 readings per subject). In total, we collected the psychological brainwave pattern of 100,000 of bitcoin traders – a staggering 210,240,000,000 data points – as they tapped away on their keyboards.
Yes, very epic.
After filtering the brainwaves for solely emotion signatures, we found a pattern emerged. There was a very predictable repeating fractal after each and every bitcoin 'mooning' (or peak).
Below is the emotional brainwave superposition of 100,000 traders.
Our scientists have privately coined this brainwave pattern "Soobmee" (Sudden Onset Of Bitcoin Mooning Exuberance).
Exhibits A-D were the strongest imprints we found in the dataset.
After many months of signal analysis, we were able to map this pattern to define a new and very important predictive trading pattern.
Unlike the tried-and-tested trader patterns such as the double top, head and shoulders, cup and handle, and not to mention the most revered in crypto-land… the wedge pattern… today we unveil to the world an all new bitcoin-specific macroscopic trading pattern… the three cats and a moon pattern.
The long range bitcoin price chart below shows this fractal pattern at work:
A and B shows the pattern playing out in a bear trend, while C and D shows it playing out in a bull market.
They may look different, but they are actually the same, skewed onto a bullish or bearish trend line. The signalling to watch for is one cat and two kittens that follow on from a pump and dump.
Here's the pattern match below. We found that focusing your attention and listening for the meows of distressed kittens helps.
We must reiterate the time to use this pattern is after a bitcoin bubble has been sufficient to kick in irrational trader exuberance, followed by a confirmation signal of a steep price correction.
Since the reader does not have the advantage of our brain signaling apparatus, we have a sketch below to help find you find this telltale signature in the crypto-trading room.
Finally, the sharp readers here may have noticed we do in fact have a new three cats and a moon signal confirmation. Our research team will leave you with the cheat sheet below:
This piece is not intended to provide, and should not be taken as, investment advice.
Visit Woo's blog to read more cryptocurrency markets coverage.
Images via Willy Woo for CoinDesk