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Prediction Markets

Columbia University President Minouche Shafik, left (Alex Wong/Getty Images)
Markets
Analysis
Polymarket Odds Say Columbia University President Will Keep Job
Continuing pro-Palestine protests won't lead to Minouche Shafik having a fate similar to Claudine Gay, who was recently forced to resign as Harvard's president, the prediction...
Columbia University President Minouche Shafik, left (Alex Wong/Getty Images)
By Sam Reynolds
Apr 22, 2024 at 2:23 p.m. UTC
Apr 22, 2024
AnalysisPrediction MarketsPolymarketKalshi
Taiwanese currency (Photo: sharyn morrow).
Markets
Analysis
Free Money? Polymarket Bet Pays 8.7% if China Doesn't Invade Taiwan
Betting against an invasion on the prediction market may yield almost 7x as much as Taiwan government bonds. Plus: Mideast turmoil barely changes U.S. presidential odds.
Taiwanese currency (Photo: sharyn morrow).
By Sam Reynolds
Apr 15, 2024 at 1:44 p.m. UTC
Apr 15, 2024
AnalysisPrediction MarketsChina
A C-17 Globemaster III from the 437th Air Wing, Charleston Air Force Base, S.C., air delivery pallets of water and food to Mirebalais, Haiti, Jan 21, 2010 to be distributed by the members of the United Nations. Department of Defense assets have been deployed to assist in the Haiti relief effort following a magnitude 7 earthquake that hit the city on Jan. 12, 2010. (U.S. Air Force photo/Tech. Sgt. James L. Harper Jr.)
Markets
Analysis
Which Crypto Projects Will Airdrop Next? Prediction Markets Are Placing Bets
Eigenlayer has a 66% chance of sending users free tokens by June 30, the odds on Polymarket signal. Plus: Kalshi lands a big Wall Street account.
A C-17 Globemaster III from the 437th Air Wing, Charleston Air Force Base, S.C., air delivery pallets of water and food to Mirebalais, Haiti, Jan 21, 2010 to be distributed by the members of the United Nations. Department of Defense assets have been deployed to assist in the Haiti relief effort following a magnitude 7 earthquake that hit the city on Jan. 12, 2010. (U.S. Air Force photo/Tech. Sgt. James L. Harper Jr.)
By Shaurya Malwa
Apr 8, 2024 at 1:32 p.m. UTC
Apr 8, 2024
AnalysisPrediction MarketsAirdropsPolymarket
Donald J. Trump at a rally (Gerd Altmann, modified by CoinDesk)
Markets
Analysis
Who Will Trump Pick for Veep? Polymarket Gives Tim Scott Best Odds: Prediction Markets
Plus: Free money? "Democrat wins New York" contract trades at 90 cents on the dollar.
Donald J. Trump at a rally (Gerd Altmann, modified by CoinDesk)
By Sam ReynoldsShaurya Malwa
Apr 1, 2024 at 1:16 p.m. UTC
Apr 1, 2024
AnalysisPrediction MarketsPolymarketDonald Trump
(Sam Poullain/Unsplash)
Markets
Opinion
How to Design Better On-Chain Governance
An introduction to Futarchy and combinatorial prediction markets.
(Sam Poullain/Unsplash)
By Malte Kliemann
Mar 27, 2024 at 4:22 p.m. UTC
Mar 27, 2024
OpinionCrypto Long & ShortGovernanceFutarchyPrediction Markets
Blockchain's fortune tellers have no more a crystal ball than in any other sphere of life. But these predictions are as good as any. (Francis Hayman/Metropolitan Museum of Art, modified by CoinDesk)
Technology
Polymarket
How Many Years Will SBF Get? Jury's Out on Betting Platform Polymarket
Plus: Tesla's delivery numbers will fall short of record, Kalshi traders signal; "Ghostbusters" fandom underestimated.
Blockchain's fortune tellers have no more a crystal ball than in any other sphere of life. But these predictions are as good as any. (Francis Hayman/Metropolitan Museum of Art, modified by CoinDesk)
By Sam Reynolds
Mar 25, 2024 at 12:56 p.m. UTC
Mar 25, 2024
PolymarketPrediction MarketsSam Bankman-FriedAnalysis
President Trump Delivers Remarks in New Orleans; Jan 14, 2019
Markets
Analysis
Nearly $100M Wagered on U.S. Presidential Election on Polymarket
Bettors on the crypto-based prediction market platform see a clear path to victory for Trump, and are bullish on Ethereum's ETH hitting an all-time high in 2024 – just not bef...
President Trump Delivers Remarks in New Orleans; Jan 14, 2019
By Sam ReynoldsShaurya Malwa
Mar 18, 2024 at 1:49 p.m. UTC
Mar 18, 2024
AnalysisPrediction MarketsPolymarketDonald Trump
Group portrait centered on Isadora Duncan, seated with her hands in her lap holding a crystal ball and gazing downwards. She is surrounded by six other female dancers who are posing in standing, kneeling, or sitting positions, and all gazing at her. In the background are four curtained windows and potted plants.
Finance
Exclusive
Prediction Market Kalshi to Take Bets on Crypto (Settled in Dollars)
The CFTC-regulated platform will let traders bet on how high ETH will go this year and other price outcomes amid renewed interest in both crypto and prediction markets.
Group portrait centered on Isadora Duncan, seated with her hands in her lap holding a crystal ball and gazing downwards. She is surrounded by six other female dancers who are posing in standing, kneeling, or sitting positions, and all gazing at her. In the background are four curtained windows and potted plants.
By Marc Hochstein
Mar 18, 2024 at 2:41 a.m. UTC
Mar 18, 2024
Exclusive Prediction MarketsKalshi
U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Rostin Behnam says his agency is working on a new proposal for prediction markets regulation. (Jesse Hamilton/CoinDesk)
Policy
Regulations
U.S. CFTC's Behnam Says Agency Writing New Policy on Prediction Markets
Companies such as PredictIt and Kalshi would get "regulatory clarity" under rule in coming months, according to the chairman of the derivatives regulator.
U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Rostin Behnam says his agency is working on a new proposal for prediction markets regulation. (Jesse Hamilton/CoinDesk)
By Jesse Hamilton
Mar 12, 2024 at 2:26 p.m. UTC
Mar 12, 2024
RegulationsKalshiPrediction MarketsPredictItPolymarketCommodity Futures Trading Commission
WASHINGTON, DC - DECEMBER 05: (L-R) Dr. Claudine Gay, President of Harvard University, Liz Magill, President of University of Pennsylvania, Dr. Pamela Nadell, Professor of History and Jewish Studies at American University, and Dr. Sally Kornbluth, President of Massachusetts Institute of Technology, testify before the House Education and Workforce Committee at the Rayburn House Office Building on December 05, 2023 in Washington, DC. The Committee held a hearing to investigate antisemitism on college campuses. (Photo by Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)
Markets
Polymarket
He Exposed Harvard President's Plagiarism, Then Lost Money Betting on the Story
Are prediction markets the future of investigative journalism? Maybe, says Chris Brunet, whose reporting led to Claudine Gay's resignation – though he's yet to profit from his...
WASHINGTON, DC - DECEMBER 05: (L-R) Dr. Claudine Gay, President of Harvard University, Liz Magill, President of University of Pennsylvania, Dr. Pamela Nadell, Professor of History and Jewish Studies at American University, and Dr. Sally Kornbluth, President of Massachusetts Institute of Technology, testify before the House Education and Workforce Committee at the Rayburn House Office Building on December 05, 2023 in Washington, DC. The Committee held a hearing to investigate antisemitism on college campuses. (Photo by Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)
By Sam Reynolds
Jan 20, 2024 at 5:00 p.m. UTC
Jan 20, 2024
PolymarketPrediction MarketsHarvardHarvard University