Markets Weekly: Slow Week for Bitcoin Price as 'Grexit' Looms

Bitcoin traded sideways over the last week, with the price largely unchanged, as the wider macro-economy awaits a possible Greek Eurozone exit.

AccessTimeIconFeb 9, 2015 at 2:23 p.m. UTC
Updated Mar 6, 2023 at 3:02 p.m. UTC
10 Years of Decentralizing the Future
May 29-31, 2024 - Austin, TexasThe biggest and most established global hub for everything crypto, blockchain and Web3.Register Now

The bitcoin price stayed relatively flat over the last week, trading around the $225 mark.

The digital currency opened on 2nd February at $226.40 and closed seven days later at $222.87, showing a loss of 1.56% over the period, according to the CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index.

Price movement appeared to be muted in the absence of major announcements or events.

The first days of the week showed the most action. On 2nd February, the price climbed $16 to hit a high of $242. This was followed by the week's biggest intra-day swing the following day, when the price plunged $22 from a high of $246.19. The day ended with bitcoin trading at $226.96.

Sentiment indicators

The market appears to be cautiously bullish about bitcoin's price prospects, according to sentiment indicatorshttp://bfxdata.com/sentiment/longshort.php on Bitfinex.

Hourly swaps activity had longs outpacing shorts for most of the week. Shorts dominated on 4th and 5th February, but gave way to longs for the remainder of the period.

Total active swaps showed a slight uptick for longs towards the end of the week, accounting for 78% of active swaps at the close of 8th February.

The week's swaps activity has been more positive than trends since the start of the year. Since January, long swaps have accounted for between 72% and 80% of all active swaps on Bitfinex. Contrast this to a peak last June when long swaps took up 90% of the swaps market.

Meanwhile, short swaps hit a peak of 27% on 8th January, but have since declined to around 20% of total active swaps.

 Source: BFXdata.com
Source: BFXdata.com

On the regulatory front, the Italian central bank issued guidance saying that cryptocurrency exchanges in the country are exempt from anti-money laundering rules, a subtle signal that was interpreted positively by market watchers there.

The guidance stopped short of suggesting a shift in policy in favour of cryptocurrency, as observers believe the central bank is itself awaiting guidance on the matter from European regulators. Its latest statement is in line with guidance from the European Central Bank and European Banking Authority.

'Grexit' good for bitcoin?

On the macro front and also in Europe, Greek banks face a looming debt crisis and the possibility of the nation exiting the Eurozone. A so-called 'Grexit' now has a 50% chance of happening, according to an LNG Capital estimate quoted by Reuters.

Arthur Hayes of BitMEX adds the Swiss franc to the mix, painting a scenario where Greece leaves the Eurozone, causing panicked euro holders to pile into to Swiss franc as a safe haven. That's where bitcoin comes in, Hayes says, writing in his weekly Crypto Trader Digest.

As Swiss francs rise in demand, Switzerland would put in place capital controls – an unlikely prospect even Hayes admits – and thus create an opening for bitcoin.

He writes:

"When faced with the real threat of government confiscation and sequester of their capital [investors] will begin to think outside the box. Bitcoin is one of the options on a menu of non-governmental assets ... on the margin, the Eurozone events could bring cash buyers back to the market and resurrect the bitcoin bull market."

Wishful thinking, perhaps, for a bitcoin market in the doldrums.

Disclosure

Please note that our privacy policy, terms of use, cookies, and do not sell my personal information has been updated.

CoinDesk is an award-winning media outlet that covers the cryptocurrency industry. Its journalists abide by a strict set of editorial policies. In November 2023, CoinDesk was acquired by the Bullish group, owner of Bullish, a regulated, digital assets exchange. The Bullish group is majority-owned by Block.one; both companies have interests in a variety of blockchain and digital asset businesses and significant holdings of digital assets, including bitcoin. CoinDesk operates as an independent subsidiary with an editorial committee to protect journalistic independence. CoinDesk employees, including journalists, may receive options in the Bullish group as part of their compensation.


Learn more about Consensus 2024, CoinDesk's longest-running and most influential event that brings together all sides of crypto, blockchain and Web3. Head to consensus.coindesk.com to register and buy your pass now.