Prediction Markets

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Consensus Magazine

Americans (Seemingly) Aren't Allowed to Put This Economic Theory to the Test

The CFTC keeps putting fences around prediction markets, which some say are better way to aggregate information.

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Sep 22, 2023 at 7:19 p.m. UTC

Sep 22, 2023

OpinionThe NodeNewslettersPrediction MarketsKalshi

CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam speaks at DC Fintech Week (Nikhilesh De/CoinDesk)

Policy

CFTC Denies Kalshi’s Plan to Let Users Bet on Control of U.S. Congress

U.S. federal regulators said the plans weren't in the "public interest," after a court squabble involving rival service PredictIt

CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam speaks at DC Fintech Week (Nikhilesh De/CoinDesk)

By Jack Schickler

Sep 22, 2023 at 1:11 p.m. UTC

Sep 22, 2023

RegulationsPrediction MarketsCFTCUnited States

Prediction markets generate more accurate forecasts than other methods. (Bettmann/Getty Images)

Markets

BitMEX's Prediction Market Is Now Live

Current prediction market contracts revolve around FTX bankruptcy claim recoveries, the future of bitcoin ETFs, and Sam Bankman-Fried’s jail sentence.

Prediction markets generate more accurate forecasts than other methods. (Bettmann/Getty Images)

By Sam Reynolds

Sep 13, 2023 at 5:42 a.m. UTC

Sep 13, 2023

BitMEXPrediction MarketsPolymarket

(Nikhilesh De/CoinDesk)

Policy

CFTC Kicks Off Review of Kalshi's Congressional Control Prediction Markets

Kalshi wants to let users bet on which political party will control Congress after an election.

(Nikhilesh De/CoinDesk)

By Nikhilesh De

Jun 24, 2023 at 2:59 a.m. UTC

Jun 24, 2023

RegulationsPrediction MarketsCFTCKalshi

Kalshi will have a prediction contract weighed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. (Jesse Hamilton/CoinDesk)

Policy

CFTC to Review Prediction Market Kalshi’s Contracts to Bet on Control of Congress

The U.S. derivatives regulator has scheduled a June 26 meeting to discuss starting another review to evaluate whether to approve Kalshi’s event contracts.

Kalshi will have a prediction contract weighed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. (Jesse Hamilton/CoinDesk)

By Jesse Hamilton

Jun 16, 2023 at 10:57 p.m. UTC

Jun 16, 2023

RegulationsPrediction MarketsBettingPredictItPolymarketCommodity Futures Trading Commission

Policy

CFTC Staff Recommends Rejecting Kalshi's US Election Contracts: Bloomberg

Commissioners would still need to vote on the advice.

Oct 28, 2022 at 10:18 p.m. UTC

Oct 28, 2022

RegulationsPrediction MarketsCFTC

Kalshi countdown to election markets (kalshi.com)

Policy

Prediction Market Kalshi Signals It Sees CFTC's Blessing for Midterm Election Bets

A countdown clock on its website ends today, indicating the service is optimistic regulators will let it offer contracts for the Nov. 8 election.

Kalshi countdown to election markets (kalshi.com)

Oct 28, 2022 at 3:56 p.m. UTC

Oct 28, 2022

RegulationsPrediction MarketsUSCFTC

U.S. Capitol building, Washington, D.C. (Jesse Hamilton/CoinDesk)

Policy

Crypto Predictions Site Polymarket Foresees Republicans Winning Both Senate and House

The site is giving an overall 64% chance to Republicans for taking control of Congress.

U.S. Capitol building, Washington, D.C. (Jesse Hamilton/CoinDesk)

By Amitoj Singh

Oct 27, 2022 at 8:22 a.m. UTC

Oct 27, 2022

Election 2022CryptoPrediction MarketsU.S.

Russian President Vladimir Putin (DimitroSevastopol/Pixabay)

Finance

Crypto Predictions Site Polymarket Taking Bets on Whether Russia Will Use a Nuclear Weapon by 2023

Traders on Polymarket, which is not available to U.S. users, are putting a 6% probability of Russia doing so.

Russian President Vladimir Putin (DimitroSevastopol/Pixabay)

Oct 19, 2022 at 9:32 p.m. UTC

Oct 19, 2022

PolymarketRussiaPrediction Markets

PredictIt allows traders to wager on the outcome of political events. (Jesse Hamilton/CoinDesk)

Policy

Election Betting Site PredictIt Sues to Block CFTC-Ordered Shutdown

The CFTC’s August action calls for the site to be closed for U.S. users by February 15.

PredictIt allows traders to wager on the outcome of political events. (Jesse Hamilton/CoinDesk)

Sep 15, 2022 at 1:27 p.m. UTC

Sep 15, 2022

CFTCPrediction MarketsLawsuitUS